Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 97.8% implied probability of owning the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominating the top two spots on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (style control off), with superior Elo scores from crowdsourced user battles emphasizing text reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations. Recent March releases like GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20 have narrowed gaps in some benchmarks but failed to overtake Claude's consistent edge in arena preferences, reflecting builders' strong adoption via API and tools like Claude Code. With resolution imminent in two days, only an unexpected model drop from xAI or Google—such as Grok 5 or Gemini 3.5—could realistically challenge this positioning, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?
Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?
Anthropic 97.8%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$528,909 Vol.
$528,909 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.8%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$528,909 Vol.
$528,909 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$96,063 Vol.
98%
xAI
$54,134 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$152,801 Vol.
<1%
$122,145 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$39,641 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 97.8% implied probability of owning the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominating the top two spots on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (style control off), with superior Elo scores from crowdsourced user battles emphasizing text reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations. Recent March releases like GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20 have narrowed gaps in some benchmarks but failed to overtake Claude's consistent edge in arena preferences, reflecting builders' strong adoption via API and tools like Claude Code. With resolution imminent in two days, only an unexpected model drop from xAI or Google—such as Grok 5 or Gemini 3.5—could realistically challenge this positioning, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 48 hours.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$528,909Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 97.8% implied probability of owning the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominating the top two spots on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (style control off), with superior Elo scores from crowdsourced user battles emphasizing text reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations. Recent March releases like GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20 have narrowed gaps in some benchmarks but failed to overtake Claude's consistent edge in arena preferences, reflecting builders' strong adoption via API and tools like Claude Code. With resolution imminent in two days, only an unexpected model drop from xAI or Google—such as Grok 5 or Gemini 3.5—could realistically challenge this positioning, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 48 hours.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$528,909Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 97.8% implied probability of owning the second-best AI model by March 31, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominating the top two spots on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (style control off), with superior Elo scores from crowdsourced user battles emphasizing text reasoning, coding, and low hallucinations. Recent March releases like GPT-5.4 and Grok 4.20 have narrowed gaps in some benchmarks but failed to overtake Claude's consistent edge in arena preferences, reflecting builders' strong adoption via API and tools like Claude Code. With resolution imminent in two days, only an unexpected model drop from xAI or Google—such as Grok 5 or Gemini 3.5—could realistically challenge this positioning, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past 48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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