Market icon
Tecnologia·Gémeos 3

Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Gémeos 3

Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Anthropic 97.5%

xAI <1%

DeepSeek <1%

Google <1%

Polymarket

$526,565 Vol.

Anthropic 97.5%

xAI <1%

DeepSeek <1%

Google <1%

Polymarket

$526,565 Vol.

Market icon

Anthropic

$95,677 Vol.

98%

Market icon

xAI

$53,073 Vol.

1%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$151,979 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Google

$122,088 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

OpenAI

$39,623 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Alibaba

$0 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Baidu

$0 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$0 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Z.ai

$64,125 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mistral

$0 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Meituan

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.5% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, as their non-thinking variant holds #2 at 1500 Elo—trailing only their own thinking variant at 1504—following the March 25 update. This positioning stems from consistent outperformance in crowdsourced blind battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing, where Claude's long-context handling and safety-aligned outputs have garnered superior user votes over rivals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #3 (1493 Elo), xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491, preliminary), with minimal shifts in the past week. A late Grok or Gemini update could challenge this if it sparks rapid Elo gains before resolution, though tight timelines limit upset potential.

Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.5% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, as their non-thinking variant holds #2 at 1500 Elo—trailing only their own thinking variant at 1504—following the March 25 update. This positioning stems from consistent outperformance in crowdsourced blind battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing, where Claude's long-context handling and safety-aligned outputs have garnered superior user votes over rivals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #3 (1493 Elo), xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491, preliminary), with minimal shifts in the past week. A late Grok or Gemini update could challenge this if it sparks rapid Elo gains before resolution, though tight timelines limit upset potential.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.5% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, as their non-thinking variant holds #2 at 1500 Elo—trailing only their own thinking variant at 1504—following the March 25 update. This positioning stems from consistent outperformance in crowdsourced blind battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing, where Claude's long-context handling and safety-aligned outputs have garnered superior user votes over rivals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #3 (1493 Elo), xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491, preliminary), with minimal shifts in the past week. A late Grok or Gemini update could challenge this if it sparks rapid Elo gains before resolution, though tight timelines limit upset potential.

Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant 97.5% implied probability on Polymarket for owning the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by March 31, as their non-thinking variant holds #2 at 1500 Elo—trailing only their own thinking variant at 1504—following the March 25 update. This positioning stems from consistent outperformance in crowdsourced blind battles across reasoning, coding, and creative writing, where Claude's long-context handling and safety-aligned outputs have garnered superior user votes over rivals. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview lags at #3 (1493 Elo), xAI's Grok 4.20 beta at #4 (1491, preliminary), with minimal shifts in the past week. A late Grok or Gemini update could challenge this if it sparks rapid Elo gains before resolution, though tight timelines limit upset potential.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 98%, followed by "xAI" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?" has generated $526.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?" is "Anthropic" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "xAI" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de março?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.