Recent leaks from OpenAI’s Codex backend logs and internal staff messages from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki have positioned GPT-5.6 as a “meaningful improvement” over the April 2026 GPT-5.5 release, fueling trader expectations for a mid-to-late June rollout. The rapid post-GPT-5.5 iteration cadence, combined with competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic, supports the 56.5% implied probability on June 22–28 and 30.5% on June 15–21. As of June 11, credible reporting indicates the model is in final preparation without an official announcement, leaving the low 13.2% chance of delay past June 28 as the residual uncertainty around exact timing and any last-minute safety reviews.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoWhen will GPT-5.6 be released?
When will GPT-5.6 be released?
June 22–June 28 56.5%
June 15–June 21 31%
Not released by June 28 13.2%
June 8–June 14 <1%
$151,786 Vol.
$151,786 Vol.
28 jun 2026
June 8–June 14
<1%
June 15–June 21
31%
June 22–June 28
57%
Not released by June 28
13%
June 22–June 28 56.5%
June 15–June 21 31%
Not released by June 28 13.2%
June 8–June 14 <1%
$151,786 Vol.
$151,786 Vol.
28 jun 2026
June 8–June 14
$37,669 Vol.
<1%
June 15–June 21
$23,995 Vol.
31%
June 22–June 28
$18,110 Vol.
57%
Not released by June 28
$29,587 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks from OpenAI’s Codex backend logs and internal staff messages from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki have positioned GPT-5.6 as a “meaningful improvement” over the April 2026 GPT-5.5 release, fueling trader expectations for a mid-to-late June rollout. The rapid post-GPT-5.5 iteration cadence, combined with competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic, supports the 56.5% implied probability on June 22–28 and 30.5% on June 15–21. As of June 11, credible reporting indicates the model is in final preparation without an official announcement, leaving the low 13.2% chance of delay past June 28 as the residual uncertainty around exact timing and any last-minute safety reviews.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$151,786Data de Término
28 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks from OpenAI’s Codex backend logs and internal staff messages from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki have positioned GPT-5.6 as a “meaningful improvement” over the April 2026 GPT-5.5 release, fueling trader expectations for a mid-to-late June rollout. The rapid post-GPT-5.5 iteration cadence, combined with competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic, supports the 56.5% implied probability on June 22–28 and 30.5% on June 15–21. As of June 11, credible reporting indicates the model is in final preparation without an official announcement, leaving the low 13.2% chance of delay past June 28 as the residual uncertainty around exact timing and any last-minute safety reviews.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$151,786Data de Término
28 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent leaks from OpenAI’s Codex backend logs and internal staff messages from chief scientist Jakub Pachocki have positioned GPT-5.6 as a “meaningful improvement” over the April 2026 GPT-5.5 release, fueling trader expectations for a mid-to-late June rollout. The rapid post-GPT-5.5 iteration cadence, combined with competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic, supports the 56.5% implied probability on June 22–28 and 30.5% on June 15–21. As of June 11, credible reporting indicates the model is in final preparation without an official announcement, leaving the low 13.2% chance of delay past June 28 as the residual uncertainty around exact timing and any last-minute safety reviews.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions