OpenAI’s rapid iteration cycle following the late-April release of GPT-5.5, combined with a confirmed canary routing entry for GPT-5.6 in Codex backend logs spotted in May, has driven trader consensus toward a mid-June launch window. The 57% implied probability on June 15–21 reflects expectations that internal testing will quickly transition to public availability, consistent with the company’s recent cadence of model updates. While no official announcement or system card exists yet, the absence of major delays and ongoing refinement of the prior model’s quirks support the tight timeline. Later June dates and the “not released by June 28” outcome capture remaining uncertainty around final safety reviews or rollout staging typical for frontier large language models.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoWhen will GPT-5.6 be released?
When will GPT-5.6 be released?
June 15–June 21 64%
Not released by June 28 20%
June 8–June 14 14%
June 22–June 28 9.8%
$61,114 Vol.
$61,114 Vol.
28 jun 2026
June 1–June 7
1%
June 8–June 14
14%
June 15–June 21
57%
June 22–June 28
10%
Not released by June 28
20%
June 15–June 21 64%
Not released by June 28 20%
June 8–June 14 14%
June 22–June 28 9.8%
$61,114 Vol.
$61,114 Vol.
28 jun 2026
June 1–June 7
$12,149 Vol.
1%
June 8–June 14
$10,607 Vol.
14%
June 15–June 21
$2,611 Vol.
57%
June 22–June 28
$2,001 Vol.
10%
Not released by June 28
$6,608 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration cycle following the late-April release of GPT-5.5, combined with a confirmed canary routing entry for GPT-5.6 in Codex backend logs spotted in May, has driven trader consensus toward a mid-June launch window. The 57% implied probability on June 15–21 reflects expectations that internal testing will quickly transition to public availability, consistent with the company’s recent cadence of model updates. While no official announcement or system card exists yet, the absence of major delays and ongoing refinement of the prior model’s quirks support the tight timeline. Later June dates and the “not released by June 28” outcome capture remaining uncertainty around final safety reviews or rollout staging typical for frontier large language models.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$61,114Data de Término
28 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration cycle following the late-April release of GPT-5.5, combined with a confirmed canary routing entry for GPT-5.6 in Codex backend logs spotted in May, has driven trader consensus toward a mid-June launch window. The 57% implied probability on June 15–21 reflects expectations that internal testing will quickly transition to public availability, consistent with the company’s recent cadence of model updates. While no official announcement or system card exists yet, the absence of major delays and ongoing refinement of the prior model’s quirks support the tight timeline. Later June dates and the “not released by June 28” outcome capture remaining uncertainty around final safety reviews or rollout staging typical for frontier large language models.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$61,114Data de Término
28 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s rapid iteration cycle following the late-April release of GPT-5.5, combined with a confirmed canary routing entry for GPT-5.6 in Codex backend logs spotted in May, has driven trader consensus toward a mid-June launch window. The 57% implied probability on June 15–21 reflects expectations that internal testing will quickly transition to public availability, consistent with the company’s recent cadence of model updates. While no official announcement or system card exists yet, the absence of major delays and ongoing refinement of the prior model’s quirks support the tight timeline. Later June dates and the “not released by June 28” outcome capture remaining uncertainty around final safety reviews or rollout staging typical for frontier large language models.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions