Escalating Middle East conflict, particularly the Iran war, has driven sharp energy price surges, anchoring Polymarket trader consensus toward elevated U.K. annual CPI inflation for 2026, with 4.5%+ at 41.5% narrowly leading 4.0-4.4% at 35.0%. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0%, but businesses and public inflation expectations have spiked to around 4.5%, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in March amid higher-than-forecast pressures. Persistent services inflation and wage growth differentiate upside risks, while potential de-escalation could favor sub-4% outcomes; watch March CPI release on April 22 for near-term swings ahead of the April 30 MPC meeting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoInflação Anual do Reino Unido 2026
Inflação Anual do Reino Unido 2026
2,0–2,4% 25%
2,5–2,9% 23%
3,5–3,9% 18%
<1,0% 7%
NOVO
NOVO
20 jan 2027
<1,0%
7%
1,0–1,4%
6%
1,5–1,9%
21%
2,0–2,4%
25%
2,5–2,9%
23%
3,5–3,9%
19%
4,0-4,4%
32%
4,5%+
42%
2,0–2,4% 25%
2,5–2,9% 23%
3,5–3,9% 18%
<1,0% 7%
NOVO
NOVO
20 jan 2027
<1,0%
$559 Vol.
7%
1,0–1,4%
$0 Vol.
6%
1,5–1,9%
$448 Vol.
21%
2,0–2,4%
$267 Vol.
25%
2,5–2,9%
$350 Vol.
23%
3,5–3,9%
$221 Vol.
19%
4,0-4,4%
$0 Vol.
32%
4,5%+
$243 Vol.
42%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarEscalating Middle East conflict, particularly the Iran war, has driven sharp energy price surges, anchoring Polymarket trader consensus toward elevated U.K. annual CPI inflation for 2026, with 4.5%+ at 41.5% narrowly leading 4.0-4.4% at 35.0%. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0%, but businesses and public inflation expectations have spiked to around 4.5%, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in March amid higher-than-forecast pressures. Persistent services inflation and wage growth differentiate upside risks, while potential de-escalation could favor sub-4% outcomes; watch March CPI release on April 22 for near-term swings ahead of the April 30 MPC meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,088Data de Término
20 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarEscalating Middle East conflict, particularly the Iran war, has driven sharp energy price surges, anchoring Polymarket trader consensus toward elevated U.K. annual CPI inflation for 2026, with 4.5%+ at 41.5% narrowly leading 4.0-4.4% at 35.0%. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0%, but businesses and public inflation expectations have spiked to around 4.5%, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in March amid higher-than-forecast pressures. Persistent services inflation and wage growth differentiate upside risks, while potential de-escalation could favor sub-4% outcomes; watch March CPI release on April 22 for near-term swings ahead of the April 30 MPC meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volume
$2,088Data de Término
20 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Escalating Middle East conflict, particularly the Iran war, has driven sharp energy price surges, anchoring Polymarket trader consensus toward elevated U.K. annual CPI inflation for 2026, with 4.5%+ at 41.5% narrowly leading 4.0-4.4% at 35.0%. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0%, but businesses and public inflation expectations have spiked to around 4.5%, prompting the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in March amid higher-than-forecast pressures. Persistent services inflation and wage growth differentiate upside risks, while potential de-escalation could favor sub-4% outcomes; watch March CPI release on April 22 for near-term swings ahead of the April 30 MPC meeting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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