Trader consensus favors a >$200M domestic opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 42% implied probability, driven by explosive pre-sales tracking and viral buzz from the March 9 final trailer, which amassed millions of views and highlighted cosmic adventures echoing the beloved Wii game's appeal. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. film's $146M 3-day launch and $1.36B global haul, Illumination's proven family animation formula, and optimal Easter Wednesday (April 1) release positioning minimal competition, recent Star Fox cameo reveals have amplified Nintendo fandom hype. Analyst estimates hover at $150-165M for the 3-day frame, but traders anticipate presale surges and walk-up demand could propel it higher ahead of final weekend tallies.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
>200m 42%
170-180m 15.3%
190-200m 13.9%
160-170m 12.4%
$266,349 Vol.
$266,349 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
8%
160-170m
12%
170-180m
15%
180-190m
12%
190-200m
14%
>200m
42%
>200m 42%
170-180m 15.3%
190-200m 13.9%
160-170m 12.4%
$266,349 Vol.
$266,349 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
$20,144 Vol.
8%
160-170m
$19,926 Vol.
12%
170-180m
$18,655 Vol.
15%
180-190m
$19,408 Vol.
12%
190-200m
$18,764 Vol.
14%
>200m
$169,452 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus favors a >$200M domestic opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 42% implied probability, driven by explosive pre-sales tracking and viral buzz from the March 9 final trailer, which amassed millions of views and highlighted cosmic adventures echoing the beloved Wii game's appeal. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. film's $146M 3-day launch and $1.36B global haul, Illumination's proven family animation formula, and optimal Easter Wednesday (April 1) release positioning minimal competition, recent Star Fox cameo reveals have amplified Nintendo fandom hype. Analyst estimates hover at $150-165M for the 3-day frame, but traders anticipate presale surges and walk-up demand could propel it higher ahead of final weekend tallies.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$266,349Data de Término
Apr 6, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus favors a >$200M domestic opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 42% implied probability, driven by explosive pre-sales tracking and viral buzz from the March 9 final trailer, which amassed millions of views and highlighted cosmic adventures echoing the beloved Wii game's appeal. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. film's $146M 3-day launch and $1.36B global haul, Illumination's proven family animation formula, and optimal Easter Wednesday (April 1) release positioning minimal competition, recent Star Fox cameo reveals have amplified Nintendo fandom hype. Analyst estimates hover at $150-165M for the 3-day frame, but traders anticipate presale surges and walk-up demand could propel it higher ahead of final weekend tallies.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$266,349Data de Término
Apr 6, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a >$200M domestic opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 42% implied probability, driven by explosive pre-sales tracking and viral buzz from the March 9 final trailer, which amassed millions of views and highlighted cosmic adventures echoing the beloved Wii game's appeal. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. film's $146M 3-day launch and $1.36B global haul, Illumination's proven family animation formula, and optimal Easter Wednesday (April 1) release positioning minimal competition, recent Star Fox cameo reveals have amplified Nintendo fandom hype. Analyst estimates hover at $150-165M for the 3-day frame, but traders anticipate presale surges and walk-up demand could propel it higher ahead of final weekend tallies.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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