Trader sentiment on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth remains closely contested, with market-implied probabilities tied at 32.5% for both 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins, reflecting uncertainty after Q4 2025's revised -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction due to weak investments offsetting robust semiconductor exports. January 2026 industrial production fell 1.9% in manufacturing, tempering optimism for the lower end, while Bank of Korea's February outlook projects strong Q1 export-led recovery and sustained private consumption, bolstering higher bins alongside KDI's upgraded 1.9% full-year 2026 forecast. Divergent views, including OECD's recent cut to 1.7% annual growth, highlight key swing factors like March trade data and domestic demand ahead of the preliminary GDP release expected in late April.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSouth Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
2.0–2.4% 31%
2.5%+ 15%
1.0–1.4% 11.0%
<0% 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
15%
0.0–0.4%
3%
0.5–0.9%
32%
1.0–1.4%
11%
1.5–1.9%
33%
2.0–2.4%
25%
2.5%+
14%
2.0–2.4% 31%
2.5%+ 15%
1.0–1.4% 11.0%
<0% 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
$0 Vol.
15%
0.0–0.4%
$0 Vol.
3%
0.5–0.9%
$0 Vol.
32%
1.0–1.4%
$0 Vol.
11%
1.5–1.9%
$267 Vol.
33%
2.0–2.4%
$0 Vol.
25%
2.5%+
$6,175 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader sentiment on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth remains closely contested, with market-implied probabilities tied at 32.5% for both 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins, reflecting uncertainty after Q4 2025's revised -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction due to weak investments offsetting robust semiconductor exports. January 2026 industrial production fell 1.9% in manufacturing, tempering optimism for the lower end, while Bank of Korea's February outlook projects strong Q1 export-led recovery and sustained private consumption, bolstering higher bins alongside KDI's upgraded 1.9% full-year 2026 forecast. Divergent views, including OECD's recent cut to 1.7% annual growth, highlight key swing factors like March trade data and domestic demand ahead of the preliminary GDP release expected in late April.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Mercado Aberto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$6,442Data de Término
Apr 23, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader sentiment on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth remains closely contested, with market-implied probabilities tied at 32.5% for both 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins, reflecting uncertainty after Q4 2025's revised -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction due to weak investments offsetting robust semiconductor exports. January 2026 industrial production fell 1.9% in manufacturing, tempering optimism for the lower end, while Bank of Korea's February outlook projects strong Q1 export-led recovery and sustained private consumption, bolstering higher bins alongside KDI's upgraded 1.9% full-year 2026 forecast. Divergent views, including OECD's recent cut to 1.7% annual growth, highlight key swing factors like March trade data and domestic demand ahead of the preliminary GDP release expected in late April.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$6,442Data de Término
Apr 23, 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth remains closely contested, with market-implied probabilities tied at 32.5% for both 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins, reflecting uncertainty after Q4 2025's revised -0.2% quarter-on-quarter contraction due to weak investments offsetting robust semiconductor exports. January 2026 industrial production fell 1.9% in manufacturing, tempering optimism for the lower end, while Bank of Korea's February outlook projects strong Q1 export-led recovery and sustained private consumption, bolstering higher bins alongside KDI's upgraded 1.9% full-year 2026 forecast. Divergent views, including OECD's recent cut to 1.7% annual growth, highlight key swing factors like March trade data and domestic demand ahead of the preliminary GDP release expected in late April.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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