Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.2% implied probability to 3-4 inches of total March precipitation in New York City, driven by official National Weather Service measurements at Central Park showing 3.39 inches accumulated through March 29. This reflects a month of intermittent light rain events, including 0.41 inches on March 23 and minor amounts earlier from systems like heavy rain on March 5 (1.39 inches) and March 16 (0.57 inches), falling short of the 4.29-inch climatological normal. NOAA forecast models indicate dry conditions with near-zero precipitation expected for March 30-31 under high-pressure ridging, solidifying the outcome. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen nor'easter or stalled frontal boundary delivering over 0.6 inches in the final days, though ensemble guidance shows low confidence in such development.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoPrecipitação em Nova York em março?
Precipitação em Nova York em março?
3-4" 94.5%
4-5" 4.1%
5-6" <1%
>15 cm <1%
$167,674 Vol.
$167,674 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<2"
<1%
5-7,5 cm
<1%
3-4"
94%
4-5"
4%
5-6"
1%
>15 cm
1%
3-4" 94.5%
4-5" 4.1%
5-6" <1%
>15 cm <1%
$167,674 Vol.
$167,674 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<2"
$30,189 Vol.
<1%
5-7,5 cm
$13,231 Vol.
<1%
3-4"
$28,934 Vol.
94%
4-5"
$27,231 Vol.
4%
5-6"
$17,963 Vol.
1%
>15 cm
$50,126 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between March 1 and March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.2% implied probability to 3-4 inches of total March precipitation in New York City, driven by official National Weather Service measurements at Central Park showing 3.39 inches accumulated through March 29. This reflects a month of intermittent light rain events, including 0.41 inches on March 23 and minor amounts earlier from systems like heavy rain on March 5 (1.39 inches) and March 16 (0.57 inches), falling short of the 4.29-inch climatological normal. NOAA forecast models indicate dry conditions with near-zero precipitation expected for March 30-31 under high-pressure ridging, solidifying the outcome. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen nor'easter or stalled frontal boundary delivering over 0.6 inches in the final days, though ensemble guidance shows low confidence in such development.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between March 1 and March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 26, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$167,674Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between March 1 and March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.2% implied probability to 3-4 inches of total March precipitation in New York City, driven by official National Weather Service measurements at Central Park showing 3.39 inches accumulated through March 29. This reflects a month of intermittent light rain events, including 0.41 inches on March 23 and minor amounts earlier from systems like heavy rain on March 5 (1.39 inches) and March 16 (0.57 inches), falling short of the 4.29-inch climatological normal. NOAA forecast models indicate dry conditions with near-zero precipitation expected for March 30-31 under high-pressure ridging, solidifying the outcome. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen nor'easter or stalled frontal boundary delivering over 0.6 inches in the final days, though ensemble guidance shows low confidence in such development.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between March 1 and March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for March 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of March 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$167,674Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.2% implied probability to 3-4 inches of total March precipitation in New York City, driven by official National Weather Service measurements at Central Park showing 3.39 inches accumulated through March 29. This reflects a month of intermittent light rain events, including 0.41 inches on March 23 and minor amounts earlier from systems like heavy rain on March 5 (1.39 inches) and March 16 (0.57 inches), falling short of the 4.29-inch climatological normal. NOAA forecast models indicate dry conditions with near-zero precipitation expected for March 30-31 under high-pressure ridging, solidifying the outcome. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen nor'easter or stalled frontal boundary delivering over 0.6 inches in the final days, though ensemble guidance shows low confidence in such development.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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