Taiwan traders price a 90.5% implied probability on President Lai Ching-te remaining in office through December 31, 2026, reflecting high constitutional barriers to removal amid stalled opposition impeachment efforts. The KMT-TPP majority in the opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan launched symbolic impeachment proceedings in late December 2025, with public hearings in January 2026 over disputes including legislative reforms and recall campaigns, but lacks the two-thirds supermajority (76 of 113 seats) needed to impeach and refer to the Constitutional Court, where a similar two-thirds of justices (10 of 15) must uphold removal—a threshold unlikely given DPP-appointed grand justices from the prior Tsai administration. Recent legislative gridlock on defense budgets and Premier Cho Jung-tai recalls highlights partisan clashes without advancing ouster, while external China tensions and U.S. senatorial support for Lai's policies reinforce domestic stability through his 2028 term end.