SpaceX's robust Q1 2026 launch cadence of 41 Falcon 9 missions by early April—averaging one every 2.3 days, mostly Starlink deployments—has traders pricing a 41.5% implied probability for 160-179 total launches, closely trailed by 140-159 at 32%, reflecting sustained high reusability with over 550 reflown boosters and no major anomalies. This pace projects around 155-160 annually if unchanged, but differentiation hinges on Starship's delayed V3 test flight (now 4-6 weeks out), which could add 10-20 missions later via rapid prototyping, versus risks from FAA approvals, weather, or payload bottlenecks. Upcoming data: FAA manifests and April's five Falcon flights will refine model consensus on scaling to 180+.