Trader consensus centers on 140-179 SpaceX launches in 2026, with 140-159 launches at 37.9% implied probability edging out 160-179 at 33.0%, driven by the company's accelerating Falcon 9 cadence—already exceeding 100 flights in 2024—and Starship's rapid prototyping successes, including Flight 5's booster catch. These engineering milestones signal potential for 5-10 weekly launches via reusable Super Heavy boosters and high-cadence Starlink deployments, extrapolated from 2023's 96 flights. Differentiating factors include Starship orbital refueling demos expected in 2025, which could unlock 100+ annual missions, versus risks from FAA licensing delays or anomaly rates above 1%. Production scaling at Starbase remains the key uncertainty tilting odds.