Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5 at 18–21°C, a notable warming from early-week frosts and 8–13°C highs under a building upper-level ridge over Central Europe. This pattern advects milder Atlantic air masses northward via southerly flows, boosting potential insolation amid partly cloudy skies—well above the early-April climatological average of 11–12°C. Differentiating factors include model spread on ridge amplitude (favoring 19–20°C median) versus timing of transient clouds or frontal nudges that could trim peaks to 18°C or stretch to 22°C. Daily updates from these models through April 4, ahead of IMGW station resolution, may sharpen odds amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 5?
19°C 21%
21°C 20%
18°C 19%
20°C 18%
NOVO
NOVO
5 abr 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
4%
16°C
6%
17°C
8%
18°C
19%
19°C
21%
20°C
18%
21°C
20%
22°C or higher
14%
19°C 21%
21°C 20%
18°C 19%
20°C 18%
NOVO
NOVO
5 abr 2026
12°C or below
$553 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$934 Vol.
1%
14°C
$381 Vol.
3%
15°C
$412 Vol.
4%
16°C
$272 Vol.
6%
17°C
$266 Vol.
8%
18°C
$476 Vol.
19%
19°C
$438 Vol.
21%
20°C
$347 Vol.
18%
21°C
$486 Vol.
20%
22°C or higher
$502 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5 at 18–21°C, a notable warming from early-week frosts and 8–13°C highs under a building upper-level ridge over Central Europe. This pattern advects milder Atlantic air masses northward via southerly flows, boosting potential insolation amid partly cloudy skies—well above the early-April climatological average of 11–12°C. Differentiating factors include model spread on ridge amplitude (favoring 19–20°C median) versus timing of transient clouds or frontal nudges that could trim peaks to 18°C or stretch to 22°C. Daily updates from these models through April 4, ahead of IMGW station resolution, may sharpen odds amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$5,066Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5 at 18–21°C, a notable warming from early-week frosts and 8–13°C highs under a building upper-level ridge over Central Europe. This pattern advects milder Atlantic air masses northward via southerly flows, boosting potential insolation amid partly cloudy skies—well above the early-April climatological average of 11–12°C. Differentiating factors include model spread on ridge amplitude (favoring 19–20°C median) versus timing of transient clouds or frontal nudges that could trim peaks to 18°C or stretch to 22°C. Daily updates from these models through April 4, ahead of IMGW station resolution, may sharpen odds amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,066Data de Término
5 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:13 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Warsaw's highest temperature on April 5 at 18–21°C, a notable warming from early-week frosts and 8–13°C highs under a building upper-level ridge over Central Europe. This pattern advects milder Atlantic air masses northward via southerly flows, boosting potential insolation amid partly cloudy skies—well above the early-April climatological average of 11–12°C. Differentiating factors include model spread on ridge amplitude (favoring 19–20°C median) versus timing of transient clouds or frontal nudges that could trim peaks to 18°C or stretch to 22°C. Daily updates from these models through April 4, ahead of IMGW station resolution, may sharpen odds amid inherent short-range uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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