Trader sentiment on Sao Paulo's March 27 high temperature hinges on a razor-thin split between 31°C (29.5%) and 30°C (29.0%), fueled by recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 30-31°C peaks under persistent subtropical high pressure and minimal cloud cover. Sao Paulo's urban heat island effect amplifies baseline late-March averages of 27-29°C from INMET records, but sea breeze incursions introduce uncertainty, potentially capping peaks at 30°C via evaporative cooling. Lower odds for 29°C reflect drier conditions suppressing convection, while 32°C+ fades amid weakening northerly flow; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution-defining precision at the official Guarulhos station.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em São Paulo no dia 27 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em São Paulo no dia 27 de março?
31°C 31%
30°C 29%
29°C 16%
32°C 13%
24°C ou menos
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
16%
30°C
29%
31°C
31%
32°C
13%
33°C
4%
34°C ou mais
2%
31°C 31%
30°C 29%
29°C 16%
32°C 13%
24°C ou menos
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
16%
30°C
29%
31°C
31%
32°C
13%
33°C
4%
34°C ou mais
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Sao Paulo's March 27 high temperature hinges on a razor-thin split between 31°C (29.5%) and 30°C (29.0%), fueled by recent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 30-31°C peaks under persistent subtropical high pressure and minimal cloud cover. Sao Paulo's urban heat island effect amplifies baseline late-March averages of 27-29°C from INMET records, but sea breeze incursions introduce uncertainty, potentially capping peaks at 30°C via evaporative cooling. Lower odds for 29°C reflect drier conditions suppressing convection, while 32°C+ fades amid weakening northerly flow; traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution-defining precision at the official Guarulhos station.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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