Trader sentiment on Chicago's March 26 high temperature clusters tightly around 66-71°F, with 68-69°F at 19% implied probability, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble means projecting 67-70°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering southerly winds and warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico. Closely trailing 66-67°F odds reflect model spread from potential cold-air damming or Lake Michigan moderation, while 70-71°F edges higher on recent HRRR high-resolution runs trending warmer with low precipitation odds. NOAA Chicago forecasts align near 68°F, but March's historical 5-10°F volatility—tied to jet stream shifts—keeps uncertainty elevated ahead of 12Z updates critical for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
68-69°F 18%
66-67°F 16%
64-65°F 12%
70-71°F 11%
$53,888 Vol.
$53,888 Vol.
59°F or below
5%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
11%
78°F or higher
4%
68-69°F 18%
66-67°F 16%
64-65°F 12%
70-71°F 11%
$53,888 Vol.
$53,888 Vol.
59°F or below
5%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
16%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
11%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
11%
78°F or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Chicago's March 26 high temperature clusters tightly around 66-71°F, with 68-69°F at 19% implied probability, driven by the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble means projecting 67-70°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering southerly winds and warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico. Closely trailing 66-67°F odds reflect model spread from potential cold-air damming or Lake Michigan moderation, while 70-71°F edges higher on recent HRRR high-resolution runs trending warmer with low precipitation odds. NOAA Chicago forecasts align near 68°F, but March's historical 5-10°F volatility—tied to jet stream shifts—keeps uncertainty elevated ahead of 12Z updates critical for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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