Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 8–10°C maxima for Ankara on March 20, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 7–11°C highs amid a northerly airflow ushering cooler continental air. The edge for 9°C (35%) over 8°C (32%) stems from ECMWF's deterministic run projecting a midday peak near 9°C under partial cloudiness, while GFS ensembles lean slightly cooler at 8°C due to enhanced low-level mixing and potential overnight freeze recovery. Differentiating factors include soil moisture deficits limiting daytime warming and a weakening high-pressure ridge, with Turkish State Meteorological Service outlooks aligning at 8–10°C; historical March 20 averages (11°C) suggest below-normal odds from persistent cold anomalies. Upcoming 12Z model updates could shift probabilities further.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on March 20?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 20?
9°C 35%
8°C 33%
10°C 21%
7°C 6.0%
$51,812 Vol.
$51,812 Vol.
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
6%
8°C
33%
9°C
35%
10°C
21%
11°C
4%
12°C or higher
2%
9°C 35%
8°C 33%
10°C 21%
7°C 6.0%
$51,812 Vol.
$51,812 Vol.
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
6%
8°C
33%
9°C
35%
10°C
21%
11°C
4%
12°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 8–10°C maxima for Ankara on March 20, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on 7–11°C highs amid a northerly airflow ushering cooler continental air. The edge for 9°C (35%) over 8°C (32%) stems from ECMWF's deterministic run projecting a midday peak near 9°C under partial cloudiness, while GFS ensembles lean slightly cooler at 8°C due to enhanced low-level mixing and potential overnight freeze recovery. Differentiating factors include soil moisture deficits limiting daytime warming and a weakening high-pressure ridge, with Turkish State Meteorological Service outlooks aligning at 8–10°C; historical March 20 averages (11°C) suggest below-normal odds from persistent cold anomalies. Upcoming 12Z model updates could shift probabilities further.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions