Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to the 80–85 per 100,000 cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate for CDC FluSurv-NET data as of Week 12 (ending March 28, 2026), driven by the latest official Week 11 report showing a season-to-date rate of 81.6 per 100,000—the third highest since 2010–2011—amid declining weekly admission rates of 1.1 per 100,000 (FluSurv-NET) and 1.7 per 100,000 (NHSN). Influenza A(H3N2) dominates, with activity subsiding nationally as outpatient visits and positivity drop, limiting Week 12 additions to roughly 1 per 100,000. The official Week 12 FluView report, due imminently, could include revisions from reporting lags, but a significant upward shift would require an improbable surge in confirmed cases, while downward adjustments remain possible though unlikely given stable preliminary trends.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
80–85 100.0%
<75 <1%
75–80 <1%
85–90 <1%
$26,346 Vol.
$26,346 Vol.
<75
No
75–80
No
80–85
Yes
85–90
No
90–95
No
95+
Não
80–85 100.0%
<75 <1%
75–80 <1%
85–90 <1%
$26,346 Vol.
$26,346 Vol.
<75
No
75–80
No
80–85
Yes
85–90
No
90–95
No
95+
Não
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns virtually 100% implied probability to the 80–85 per 100,000 cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate for CDC FluSurv-NET data as of Week 12 (ending March 28, 2026), driven by the latest official Week 11 report showing a season-to-date rate of 81.6 per 100,000—the third highest since 2010–2011—amid declining weekly admission rates of 1.1 per 100,000 (FluSurv-NET) and 1.7 per 100,000 (NHSN). Influenza A(H3N2) dominates, with activity subsiding nationally as outpatient visits and positivity drop, limiting Week 12 additions to roughly 1 per 100,000. The official Week 12 FluView report, due imminently, could include revisions from reporting lags, but a significant upward shift would require an improbable surge in confirmed cases, while downward adjustments remain possible though unlikely given stable preliminary trends.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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