Republican-appointed incumbent Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the special Florida U.S. Senate race triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation to join the administration as secretary of state, with recent Emerson College polling from late March showing her ahead 46%-38% against Democratic challenger Alexander Vindman among likely voters. This reflects Florida's deepening Republican tilt, marked by strong GOP midterm performances, high incumbency advantages for appointees, and a thin Democratic bench in the state, driving trader consensus to an 88% implied probability for a Republican victory. A University of North Florida poll earlier in March similarly placed Moody's edge within single digits against other potential Democratic foes like Angie Nixon. With the filing deadline on April 24 and primaries on August 18, no major shifts have emerged in the past week, though a stronger Democratic nominee or national headwinds could narrow the gap ahead of the general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$19,845 Vol.
$19,845 Vol.
Republicano
88%
Democrata
12%
$19,845 Vol.
$19,845 Vol.
Republicano
$10,828 Vol.
88%
Democrata
$9,017 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican-appointed incumbent Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the special Florida U.S. Senate race triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation to join the administration as secretary of state, with recent Emerson College polling from late March showing her ahead 46%-38% against Democratic challenger Alexander Vindman among likely voters. This reflects Florida's deepening Republican tilt, marked by strong GOP midterm performances, high incumbency advantages for appointees, and a thin Democratic bench in the state, driving trader consensus to an 88% implied probability for a Republican victory. A University of North Florida poll earlier in March similarly placed Moody's edge within single digits against other potential Democratic foes like Angie Nixon. With the filing deadline on April 24 and primaries on August 18, no major shifts have emerged in the past week, though a stronger Democratic nominee or national headwinds could narrow the gap ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$19,845Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican-appointed incumbent Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the special Florida U.S. Senate race triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation to join the administration as secretary of state, with recent Emerson College polling from late March showing her ahead 46%-38% against Democratic challenger Alexander Vindman among likely voters. This reflects Florida's deepening Republican tilt, marked by strong GOP midterm performances, high incumbency advantages for appointees, and a thin Democratic bench in the state, driving trader consensus to an 88% implied probability for a Republican victory. A University of North Florida poll earlier in March similarly placed Moody's edge within single digits against other potential Democratic foes like Angie Nixon. With the filing deadline on April 24 and primaries on August 18, no major shifts have emerged in the past week, though a stronger Democratic nominee or national headwinds could narrow the gap ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$19,845Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican-appointed incumbent Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the special Florida U.S. Senate race triggered by Marco Rubio's resignation to join the administration as secretary of state, with recent Emerson College polling from late March showing her ahead 46%-38% against Democratic challenger Alexander Vindman among likely voters. This reflects Florida's deepening Republican tilt, marked by strong GOP midterm performances, high incumbency advantages for appointees, and a thin Democratic bench in the state, driving trader consensus to an 88% implied probability for a Republican victory. A University of North Florida poll earlier in March similarly placed Moody's edge within single digits against other potential Democratic foes like Angie Nixon. With the filing deadline on April 24 and primaries on August 18, no major shifts have emerged in the past week, though a stronger Democratic nominee or national headwinds could narrow the gap ahead of the general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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