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icon for How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
Política·Depec Us Elections

How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?

icon for How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?
Política·Depec Us Elections

How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?

2 51%

3 30.5%

4 11.5%

1 6.3%

Polymarket

$19,965 Vol.

2 51%

3 30.5%

4 11.5%

1 6.3%

Polymarket

$19,965 Vol.

0

$3,122 Vol.

5%

1

$1,953 Vol.

6%

2

$7,474 Vol.

51%

3

$3,355 Vol.

31%

4

$1,506 Vol.

12%

5

$1,490 Vol.

1%

6+

$1,066 Vol.

1%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification. Trader consensus around two or three Republican wins in Senate and gubernatorial contests within 2024 Harris-won states reflects limited structural openings in predominantly Democratic strongholds. Republicans defend governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont, where incumbents hold advantages, while most Senate seats up in these jurisdictions remain safely Democratic based on historical voting patterns and current polling. Recent primaries, including Michigan’s Senate contest, have clarified Democratic nominees but shown little spillover into Harris states. Upcoming November 2026 voting, candidate recruitment, and any shifts in turnout or national conditions could determine whether outcomes settle near the lower or middle end of the range, with few paths evident for larger Republican hauls given the electoral map.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$19,965
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification. Trader consensus around two or three Republican wins in Senate and gubernatorial contests within 2024 Harris-won states reflects limited structural openings in predominantly Democratic strongholds. Republicans defend governorships in New Hampshire and Vermont, where incumbents hold advantages, while most Senate seats up in these jurisdictions remain safely Democratic based on historical voting patterns and current polling. Recent primaries, including Michigan’s Senate contest, have clarified Democratic nominees but shown little spillover into Harris states. Upcoming November 2026 voting, candidate recruitment, and any shifts in turnout or national conditions could determine whether outcomes settle near the lower or middle end of the range, with few paths evident for larger Republican hauls given the electoral map.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election.

This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$19,965
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve based on the results of all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A Senate candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the relevant elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the relevant Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A gubernatorial candidate's party will only be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2" at 51%, followed by "3" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?" has generated $20K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?" is "2" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.