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Política·MIDTERMS

Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29 (individual)

icon for Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29 (individual)
Política·MIDTERMS

Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29 (individual)

Polymarket
NOVO
Polymarket
NOVO

Luz Rivas

$923 Vol.

87%

Angélica María Dueñas

$242 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Luz Rivas, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2025, secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 51 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Democratic challenger Angélica María Dueñas. The heavily Democratic district's partisan baseline and Rivas's established fundraising and institutional support underpin the wide gap in current trader consensus. Dueñas's second-place primary finish creates the only realistic general-election matchup on November 3, though the seat's structural advantages and lack of competitive polling keep her odds limited. No major late developments have altered the race trajectory since the primary.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,165
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 10:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Luz Rivas, the Democratic incumbent first elected in 2025, secured the top spot in California's June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 51 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Democratic challenger Angélica María Dueñas. The heavily Democratic district's partisan baseline and Rivas's established fundraising and institutional support underpin the wide gap in current trader consensus. Dueñas's second-place primary finish creates the only realistic general-election matchup on November 3, though the seat's structural advantages and lack of competitive polling keep her odds limited. No major late developments have altered the race trajectory since the primary.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$1,165
Data de Término
3 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 10:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29 (individual)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luz Rivas" at 87%, followed by "Angélica María Dueñas" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29 (individual)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29 (individual)," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29 (individual)" is "Luz Rivas" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Angélica María Dueñas" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-29 (individual)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.