This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated release cadence in 2026, with Claude Opus 4.8 launched on May 28 featuring gains in honesty, tool use, and agentic performance, is the main factor shaping trader views on a Claude 5 rollout. The company has iterated every few weeks on the 4.x family since early in the year, emphasizing large language model improvements in reasoning and computer-use benchmarks while preparing internal projects like the more capable Mythos system. No official Claude 5 announcement has occurred, but leaks and historical patterns point to a potential Q2 or Q3 window for a next-generation architecture. Key upcoming signals include Anthropic blog posts, API documentation updates, and competitive pressure from rival frontier models that could accelerate or delay the transition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Anthropic’s accelerated release cadence in 2026, with Claude Opus 4.8 launched on May 28 featuring gains in honesty, tool use, and agentic performance, is the main factor shaping trader views on a Claude 5 rollout. The company has iterated every few weeks on the 4.x family since early in the year, emphasizing large language model improvements in reasoning and computer-use benchmarks while preparing internal projects like the more capable Mythos system. No official Claude 5 announcement has occurred, but leaks and historical patterns point to a potential Q2 or Q3 window for a next-generation architecture. Key upcoming signals include Anthropic blog posts, API documentation updates, and competitive pressure from rival frontier models that could accelerate or delay the transition.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Jun 2 2026
Anthropic expands Project Glasswing and confirms Mythos-class models will roll out publicly soon
Anthropic announced expansion of its cybersecurity Project Glasswing and reiterated that Mythos-class models, which are more powerful than current public models, will be made available to all customers in a matter of weeks. This indicates imminent public access to advanced models but no explicit Claude 5 branding yet.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, signaling growth and future plans
Anthropic filed paperwork for an IPO, highlighting company growth and investor confidence but did not announce Claude 5 release, maintaining market uncertainty about the model's public availability.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with SEC
September 30, 2026 drops to 62%6%
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, signaling corporate growth and funding but unrelated directly to Claude 5 public release timing.
May 28 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.8 with improved performance and announces upcoming Mythos public release
September 30, 2026 dips to 62%1%
On May 28, 2026, Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, improving speed and capability over Opus 4.7. The company also confirmed plans to release Mythos-class models to all customers in the coming weeks, signaling a future public rollout of a more advanced model but not a Claude 5 named release yet.
May 28 2026
Anthropic Releases Claude Opus 4.8 with Dynamic Workflows
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%2%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, improving speed and capability over Opus 4.7 but still without a public Claude 5 release. This led to a market reassessment and price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome as the deadline neared.
May 24 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found using Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 drops to 62%7%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing revealed extensive vulnerability findings using the restricted Mythos model, underscoring its power but also the reason for its limited release. This tempered expectations for a public Claude 5 launch soon.
May 22 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic moved Claude Security, a tool for AI-powered vulnerability discovery and remediation, into public beta for Enterprise customers. This product uses Claude Opus 4.7 but is distinct from Claude 5, highlighting ongoing model development without a public Claude 5 release.
May 22 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical bugs found using Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 drops to 63%7%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing revealed extensive vulnerability findings using Claude Mythos Preview, but the model remains restricted, delaying any public Claude 5 release.
May 6 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7 and launches Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and introduced Claude Design, enhancing collaboration features but did not announce Claude 5. This release caused a spike in market confidence about imminent new models but no confirmation of Claude 5 availability.
May 4 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%7%
Anthropic launched Claude Security, a public beta product using Opus 4.7 for code vulnerability scanning, signaling focus on specialized models rather than a public Claude 5 release.
Apr 17 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7 and Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and a new product, Claude Design, enhancing capabilities but not announcing Claude 5. This reinforced the view that Claude 5 was not imminent.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7, latest model in Claude 4 family
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7, an improved model within the Claude 4 generation, available across all Claude products and major cloud platforms. This update indicated continued development within the Claude 4 line rather than a new Claude 5 release, influencing market sentiment towards a delayed Claude 5 launch.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic Releases Claude Opus 4.7 and Launches Claude Design
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and introduced Claude Design, enhancing collaboration features but keeping the Claude 4 naming convention. This release caused a temporary spike in market confidence about imminent new models, but no confirmation of Claude 5.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Claude Mythos Preview with restricted access
June 30, 2026 plunges to 34%36%
Anthropic announced the Claude Mythos Preview model, a more powerful successor to Opus 4.7, but access is limited to select partners due to cybersecurity risks, indicating no broad public release yet.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 surges to 72%22%
Anthropic revealed Project Glasswing and a powerful internal model called Claude Mythos Preview, limited to select partners for cybersecurity applications. The announcement confirmed the existence of a more advanced model beyond Opus 4.7 but clarified it was not yet publicly released, impacting market expectations for Claude 5.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic Announces Project Glasswing and Restricts Claude Mythos Preview
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%40%
Anthropic officially announced Claude Mythos Preview but explicitly stated it would not be released to the general public due to cybersecurity risks. This decision dashed hopes of an imminent Claude 5 public launch, causing the June 30, 2026 outcome to plummet.
Mar 31 2026
Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but no Claude 5 announced
June 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
As of March 31, 2026, Anthropic had publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models but had not announced any model explicitly named Claude 5. This maintained market uncertainty about a public Claude 5 release.
Mar 27 2026
No public Claude 5 release announced; Anthropic shipping Claude 4.6 models
As of late March 2026, Anthropic had publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but had not announced any model named Claude 5. This absence of a public release contributed to market uncertainty about Claude 5 availability by the end of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated release cadence in 2026, with Claude Opus 4.8 launched on May 28 featuring gains in honesty, tool use, and agentic performance, is the main factor shaping trader views on a Claude 5 rollout. The company has iterated every few weeks on the 4.x family since early in the year, emphasizing large language model improvements in reasoning and computer-use benchmarks while preparing internal projects like the more capable Mythos system. No official Claude 5 announcement has occurred, but leaks and historical patterns point to a potential Q2 or Q3 window for a next-generation architecture. Key upcoming signals include Anthropic blog posts, API documentation updates, and competitive pressure from rival frontier models that could accelerate or delay the transition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Anthropic’s accelerated release cadence in 2026, with Claude Opus 4.8 launched on May 28 featuring gains in honesty, tool use, and agentic performance, is the main factor shaping trader views on a Claude 5 rollout. The company has iterated every few weeks on the 4.x family since early in the year, emphasizing large language model improvements in reasoning and computer-use benchmarks while preparing internal projects like the more capable Mythos system. No official Claude 5 announcement has occurred, but leaks and historical patterns point to a potential Q2 or Q3 window for a next-generation architecture. Key upcoming signals include Anthropic blog posts, API documentation updates, and competitive pressure from rival frontier models that could accelerate or delay the transition.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Jun 2 2026
Anthropic expands Project Glasswing and confirms Mythos-class models will roll out publicly soon
Anthropic announced expansion of its cybersecurity Project Glasswing and reiterated that Mythos-class models, which are more powerful than current public models, will be made available to all customers in a matter of weeks. This indicates imminent public access to advanced models but no explicit Claude 5 branding yet.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic confidentially files for IPO, signaling growth and future plans
Anthropic filed paperwork for an IPO, highlighting company growth and investor confidence but did not announce Claude 5 release, maintaining market uncertainty about the model's public availability.
Jun 1 2026
Anthropic files confidential IPO paperwork with SEC
September 30, 2026 drops to 62%6%
Anthropic filed confidential paperwork for an IPO, signaling corporate growth and funding but unrelated directly to Claude 5 public release timing.
May 28 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.8 with improved performance and announces upcoming Mythos public release
September 30, 2026 dips to 62%1%
On May 28, 2026, Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, improving speed and capability over Opus 4.7. The company also confirmed plans to release Mythos-class models to all customers in the coming weeks, signaling a future public rollout of a more advanced model but not a Claude 5 named release yet.
May 28 2026
Anthropic Releases Claude Opus 4.8 with Dynamic Workflows
June 30, 2026 dips to 16%2%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.8, improving speed and capability over Opus 4.7 but still without a public Claude 5 release. This led to a market reassessment and price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome as the deadline neared.
May 24 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical vulnerabilities found using Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 drops to 62%7%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing revealed extensive vulnerability findings using the restricted Mythos model, underscoring its power but also the reason for its limited release. This tempered expectations for a public Claude 5 launch soon.
May 22 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic moved Claude Security, a tool for AI-powered vulnerability discovery and remediation, into public beta for Enterprise customers. This product uses Claude Opus 4.7 but is distinct from Claude 5, highlighting ongoing model development without a public Claude 5 release.
May 22 2026
Anthropic reports over 10,000 critical bugs found using Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 drops to 63%7%
Anthropic's Project Glasswing revealed extensive vulnerability findings using Claude Mythos Preview, but the model remains restricted, delaying any public Claude 5 release.
May 6 2026
Anthropic releases Claude Opus 4.7 and launches Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and introduced Claude Design, enhancing collaboration features but did not announce Claude 5. This release caused a spike in market confidence about imminent new models but no confirmation of Claude 5 availability.
May 4 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Security public beta for Enterprise customers
September 30, 2026 jumps to 70%7%
Anthropic launched Claude Security, a public beta product using Opus 4.7 for code vulnerability scanning, signaling focus on specialized models rather than a public Claude 5 release.
Apr 17 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7 and Claude Design product
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and a new product, Claude Design, enhancing capabilities but not announcing Claude 5. This reinforced the view that Claude 5 was not imminent.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic launches Claude Opus 4.7, latest model in Claude 4 family
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7, an improved model within the Claude 4 generation, available across all Claude products and major cloud platforms. This update indicated continued development within the Claude 4 line rather than a new Claude 5 release, influencing market sentiment towards a delayed Claude 5 launch.
Apr 16 2026
Anthropic Releases Claude Opus 4.7 and Launches Claude Design
September 30, 2026 surges to 94%43%
Anthropic released Claude Opus 4.7 and introduced Claude Design, enhancing collaboration features but keeping the Claude 4 naming convention. This release caused a temporary spike in market confidence about imminent new models, but no confirmation of Claude 5.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Claude Mythos Preview with restricted access
June 30, 2026 plunges to 34%36%
Anthropic announced the Claude Mythos Preview model, a more powerful successor to Opus 4.7, but access is limited to select partners due to cybersecurity risks, indicating no broad public release yet.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic announces Project Glasswing and Claude Mythos Preview
September 30, 2026 surges to 72%22%
Anthropic revealed Project Glasswing and a powerful internal model called Claude Mythos Preview, limited to select partners for cybersecurity applications. The announcement confirmed the existence of a more advanced model beyond Opus 4.7 but clarified it was not yet publicly released, impacting market expectations for Claude 5.
Apr 7 2026
Anthropic Announces Project Glasswing and Restricts Claude Mythos Preview
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%40%
Anthropic officially announced Claude Mythos Preview but explicitly stated it would not be released to the general public due to cybersecurity risks. This decision dashed hopes of an imminent Claude 5 public launch, causing the June 30, 2026 outcome to plummet.
Mar 31 2026
Anthropic ships Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but no Claude 5 announced
June 30, 2026 jumps to 55%5%
As of March 31, 2026, Anthropic had publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models but had not announced any model explicitly named Claude 5. This maintained market uncertainty about a public Claude 5 release.
Mar 27 2026
No public Claude 5 release announced; Anthropic shipping Claude 4.6 models
As of late March 2026, Anthropic had publicly released Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 but had not announced any model named Claude 5. This absence of a public release contributed to market uncertainty about Claude 5 availability by the end of 2025.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions
"Claude 5 libertado por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de setembro de 2026" at 63%, followed by "30 de junho de 2026" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Claude 5 libertado por...?" has generated $4.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 7, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Claude 5 libertado por...?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Claude 5 libertado por...?" is "30 de setembro de 2026" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30 de junho de 2026" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Claude 5 libertado por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Claude 5 libertado por...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $4.1 million traded on “Claude 5 libertado por...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Claude 5 libertado por...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 63¢ for "30 de setembro de 2026" in the "Claude 5 libertado por...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 63% chance that "30 de setembro de 2026" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 63¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 37¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Claude 5 libertado por...?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.
The "Claude 5 libertado por...?" market has an active community of 209 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Claude 5 libertado por...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions