Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from California's June 2 top-two primary in the 46th District to face Republican David Pan in the November general election. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Correa's primary performance, drawing nearly half the vote against multiple challengers, reinforced expectations of an incumbent hold in this Orange County-centered district. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. While late developments such as major scandals, significant national shifts, or candidate health events could theoretically alter dynamics before November, the structural and recent electoral evidence sustains the wide implied probability gap.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-46
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-46
$12,155 Vol.
$12,155 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$12,155 Vol.
$12,155 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$3,345 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$8,811 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from California's June 2 top-two primary in the 46th District to face Republican David Pan in the November general election. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Correa's primary performance, drawing nearly half the vote against multiple challengers, reinforced expectations of an incumbent hold in this Orange County-centered district. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. While late developments such as major scandals, significant national shifts, or candidate health events could theoretically alter dynamics before November, the structural and recent electoral evidence sustains the wide implied probability gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$12,155Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from California's June 2 top-two primary in the 46th District to face Republican David Pan in the November general election. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Correa's primary performance, drawing nearly half the vote against multiple challengers, reinforced expectations of an incumbent hold in this Orange County-centered district. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. While late developments such as major scandals, significant national shifts, or candidate health events could theoretically alter dynamics before November, the structural and recent electoral evidence sustains the wide implied probability gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,155Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lou Correa advanced from California's June 2 top-two primary in the 46th District to face Republican David Pan in the November general election. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Correa's primary performance, drawing nearly half the vote against multiple challengers, reinforced expectations of an incumbent hold in this Orange County-centered district. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solid or safe Democratic. While late developments such as major scandals, significant national shifts, or candidate health events could theoretically alter dynamics before November, the structural and recent electoral evidence sustains the wide implied probability gap.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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