Polymarket traders assign a 36.5% implied probability to Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, mirroring consensus full-year 2026 forecasts near 1.7%–1.8% from BBVA Research and the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey at 1.83%. This positioning reflects decelerating momentum from 2025's 2.3% expansion, evidenced by February manufacturing PMI contracting to 47.3, unemployment edging up to 5.8% in the quarter through February, and high Selic rates curbing demand despite February inflation easing to 3.81%. Copom's March 18 rate cut to 14.75% signals modest policy relief, while Finance Minister Haddad's up-to-1% Q1 view underscores caution; a 19% chance of <0.7% highlights fiscal and geopolitical risks ahead of the May/June IBGE release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoBrazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?
1.5%–1.8% 37%
<0.7% 19%
1.9%–2.2% 14%
2.3%–2.6% 14%
$14,638 Vol.
$14,638 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
19%
0.7%–1.0%
10%
1.1%–1.4%
11%
1.5%–1.8%
37%
1.9%–2.2%
14%
2.3%–2.6%
14%
≥2.7%
10%
1.5%–1.8% 37%
<0.7% 19%
1.9%–2.2% 14%
2.3%–2.6% 14%
$14,638 Vol.
$14,638 Vol.
May 29, 2026
<0.7%
$13,163 Vol.
19%
0.7%–1.0%
$10 Vol.
10%
1.1%–1.4%
$5 Vol.
11%
1.5%–1.8%
$227 Vol.
37%
1.9%–2.2%
$63 Vol.
14%
2.3%–2.6%
$10 Vol.
14%
≥2.7%
$1,161 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders assign a 36.5% implied probability to Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, mirroring consensus full-year 2026 forecasts near 1.7%–1.8% from BBVA Research and the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey at 1.83%. This positioning reflects decelerating momentum from 2025's 2.3% expansion, evidenced by February manufacturing PMI contracting to 47.3, unemployment edging up to 5.8% in the quarter through February, and high Selic rates curbing demand despite February inflation easing to 3.81%. Copom's March 18 rate cut to 14.75% signals modest policy relief, while Finance Minister Haddad's up-to-1% Q1 view underscores caution; a 19% chance of <0.7% highlights fiscal and geopolitical risks ahead of the May/June IBGE release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volume
$14,638Data de Término
May 29, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders assign a 36.5% implied probability to Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, mirroring consensus full-year 2026 forecasts near 1.7%–1.8% from BBVA Research and the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey at 1.83%. This positioning reflects decelerating momentum from 2025's 2.3% expansion, evidenced by February manufacturing PMI contracting to 47.3, unemployment edging up to 5.8% in the quarter through February, and high Selic rates curbing demand despite February inflation easing to 3.81%. Copom's March 18 rate cut to 14.75% signals modest policy relief, while Finance Minister Haddad's up-to-1% Q1 view underscores caution; a 19% chance of <0.7% highlights fiscal and geopolitical risks ahead of the May/June IBGE release.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$14,638Data de Término
May 29, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 36.5% implied probability to Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5%–1.8% year-over-year, mirroring consensus full-year 2026 forecasts near 1.7%–1.8% from BBVA Research and the Banco Central do Brasil's latest Focus survey at 1.83%. This positioning reflects decelerating momentum from 2025's 2.3% expansion, evidenced by February manufacturing PMI contracting to 47.3, unemployment edging up to 5.8% in the quarter through February, and high Selic rates curbing demand despite February inflation easing to 3.81%. Copom's March 18 rate cut to 14.75% signals modest policy relief, while Finance Minister Haddad's up-to-1% Q1 view underscores caution; a 19% chance of <0.7% highlights fiscal and geopolitical risks ahead of the May/June IBGE release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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