Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate for the March meeting, with 100% implied probability reflecting consensus on the bank's cautious normalization path amid persistent below-target inflation. Key drivers include Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent dovish signals, subdued core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year—below the 2% goal—and weak wage growth data from shunto negotiations, limiting room for hikes despite yield curve control tweaks. Global uncertainties, including U.S. election risks and softening Chinese demand, further anchor expectations. Realistic challenges would require surprise upside in February CPI (due March 22) exceeding 3% or sudden yen weakness prompting intervention, though historical precedent favors status quo continuity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSem alteração 100.0%
Reduzir taxas <1%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base <1%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 19, 2026
Reduzir taxas
Não
Sem alteração
Sim
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
Não
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
Não
Sem alteração 100.0%
Reduzir taxas <1%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base <1%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 19, 2026
Reduzir taxas
$0 Vol.
Não
Sem alteração
$0 Vol.
Sim
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$0 Vol.
Não
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$0 Vol.
Não
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate for the March meeting, with 100% implied probability reflecting consensus on the bank's cautious normalization path amid persistent below-target inflation. Key drivers include Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent dovish signals, subdued core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year—below the 2% goal—and weak wage growth data from shunto negotiations, limiting room for hikes despite yield curve control tweaks. Global uncertainties, including U.S. election risks and softening Chinese demand, further anchor expectations. Realistic challenges would require surprise upside in February CPI (due March 22) exceeding 3% or sudden yen weakness prompting intervention, though historical precedent favors status quo continuity.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 22, 2025, 12:41 PM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
Mar 19, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 22, 2025, 12:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate for the March meeting, with 100% implied probability reflecting consensus on the bank's cautious normalization path amid persistent below-target inflation. Key drivers include Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent dovish signals, subdued core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year—below the 2% goal—and weak wage growth data from shunto negotiations, limiting room for hikes despite yield curve control tweaks. Global uncertainties, including U.S. election risks and softening Chinese demand, further anchor expectations. Realistic challenges would require surprise upside in February CPI (due March 22) exceeding 3% or sudden yen weakness prompting intervention, though historical precedent favors status quo continuity.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$0Data de Término
Mar 19, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 22, 2025, 12:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate for the March meeting, with 100% implied probability reflecting consensus on the bank's cautious normalization path amid persistent below-target inflation. Key drivers include Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent dovish signals, subdued core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year—below the 2% goal—and weak wage growth data from shunto negotiations, limiting room for hikes despite yield curve control tweaks. Global uncertainties, including U.S. election risks and softening Chinese demand, further anchor expectations. Realistic challenges would require surprise upside in February CPI (due March 22) exceeding 3% or sudden yen weakness prompting intervention, though historical precedent favors status quo continuity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions