Trader consensus prices a 71% implied probability that none of Polymarket's specified black swan events—such as Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, U.S. full-scale invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping's ouster, Bitcoin exceeding $1 million or falling below $10,000, Republican Senate supermajority via November midterms, Russia attacking a NATO country, or major natural disasters—will occur by December 31, 2026. This positioning stems from four months of stability, with Trump securely in the presidency amid routine executive actions, Xi's leadership intact ahead of potential U.S.-China summits, Bitcoin trading steadily in range, and limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets after Hormuz incidents falling short of invasion thresholds. Recent monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets resolved Yes for April, reinforcing crowd wisdom despite stalled Gaza talks and Russian-Ukraine truces avoiding NATO escalation; midterms remain the primary near-term risk.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNic się nigdy nie dzieje: 2026
Nic się nigdy nie dzieje: 2026
Tak
$554,426 Wol.
$554,426 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$554,426 Wol.
$554,426 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 71% implied probability that none of Polymarket's specified black swan events—such as Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, U.S. full-scale invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping's ouster, Bitcoin exceeding $1 million or falling below $10,000, Republican Senate supermajority via November midterms, Russia attacking a NATO country, or major natural disasters—will occur by December 31, 2026. This positioning stems from four months of stability, with Trump securely in the presidency amid routine executive actions, Xi's leadership intact ahead of potential U.S.-China summits, Bitcoin trading steadily in range, and limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets after Hormuz incidents falling short of invasion thresholds. Recent monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets resolved Yes for April, reinforcing crowd wisdom despite stalled Gaza talks and Russian-Ukraine truces avoiding NATO escalation; midterms remain the primary near-term risk.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$554,426Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 71% implied probability that none of Polymarket's specified black swan events—such as Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, U.S. full-scale invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping's ouster, Bitcoin exceeding $1 million or falling below $10,000, Republican Senate supermajority via November midterms, Russia attacking a NATO country, or major natural disasters—will occur by December 31, 2026. This positioning stems from four months of stability, with Trump securely in the presidency amid routine executive actions, Xi's leadership intact ahead of potential U.S.-China summits, Bitcoin trading steadily in range, and limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets after Hormuz incidents falling short of invasion thresholds. Recent monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets resolved Yes for April, reinforcing crowd wisdom despite stalled Gaza talks and Russian-Ukraine truces avoiding NATO escalation; midterms remain the primary near-term risk.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$554,426Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 71% implied probability that none of Polymarket's specified black swan events—such as Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, U.S. full-scale invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, Xi Jinping's ouster, Bitcoin exceeding $1 million or falling below $10,000, Republican Senate supermajority via November midterms, Russia attacking a NATO country, or major natural disasters—will occur by December 31, 2026. This positioning stems from four months of stability, with Trump securely in the presidency amid routine executive actions, Xi's leadership intact ahead of potential U.S.-China summits, Bitcoin trading steadily in range, and limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets after Hormuz incidents falling short of invasion thresholds. Recent monthly "Nothing Ever Happens" markets resolved Yes for April, reinforcing crowd wisdom despite stalled Gaza talks and Russian-Ukraine truces avoiding NATO escalation; midterms remain the primary near-term risk.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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