**Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability to “Yes” in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market because none of the defined resolution triggers have occurred since the January launch.** The criteria include Trump leaving office, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Xi Jinping’s removal, U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime change, Russia invading a NATO member, Trump acquiring Greenland, Bitcoin extremes, a Republican Senate supermajority, or major natural disasters. As of mid-September 2026, ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions have produced escalatory incidents like Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets and U.N. General Assembly diplomacy, yet these have not crossed the listed thresholds. Scheduled elections in Russia, Sweden, and elsewhere, plus U.S. security arrangements involving Greenland, have likewise stayed within bounds. With roughly three months remaining, the absence of any triggering developments has sustained the strong Yes consensus among traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNic się nigdy nie dzieje: 2026
Nic się nigdy nie dzieje: 2026
Tak
83% szansa
$792,089 Wol.
$792,089 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
83% szansa
$792,089 Wol.
$792,089 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf**Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability to “Yes” in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market because none of the defined resolution triggers have occurred since the January launch.** The criteria include Trump leaving office, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Xi Jinping’s removal, U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime change, Russia invading a NATO member, Trump acquiring Greenland, Bitcoin extremes, a Republican Senate supermajority, or major natural disasters. As of mid-September 2026, ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions have produced escalatory incidents like Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets and U.N. General Assembly diplomacy, yet these have not crossed the listed thresholds. Scheduled elections in Russia, Sweden, and elsewhere, plus U.S. security arrangements involving Greenland, have likewise stayed within bounds. With roughly three months remaining, the absence of any triggering developments has sustained the strong Yes consensus among traders.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$792,089Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf**Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability to “Yes” in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market because none of the defined resolution triggers have occurred since the January launch.** The criteria include Trump leaving office, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Xi Jinping’s removal, U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime change, Russia invading a NATO member, Trump acquiring Greenland, Bitcoin extremes, a Republican Senate supermajority, or major natural disasters. As of mid-September 2026, ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions have produced escalatory incidents like Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets and U.N. General Assembly diplomacy, yet these have not crossed the listed thresholds. Scheduled elections in Russia, Sweden, and elsewhere, plus U.S. security arrangements involving Greenland, have likewise stayed within bounds. With roughly three months remaining, the absence of any triggering developments has sustained the strong Yes consensus among traders.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$792,089Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability to “Yes” in the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market because none of the defined resolution triggers have occurred since the January launch.** The criteria include Trump leaving office, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Xi Jinping’s removal, U.S. invasion of Iran or Iranian regime change, Russia invading a NATO member, Trump acquiring Greenland, Bitcoin extremes, a Republican Senate supermajority, or major natural disasters. As of mid-September 2026, ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions have produced escalatory incidents like Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets and U.N. General Assembly diplomacy, yet these have not crossed the listed thresholds. Scheduled elections in Russia, Sweden, and elsewhere, plus U.S. security arrangements involving Greenland, have likewise stayed within bounds. With roughly three months remaining, the absence of any triggering developments has sustained the strong Yes consensus among traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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