Traders assign a 70% probability to “Yes” on “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026” amid contained geopolitical tensions and a calendar of scheduled events rather than sudden disruptions. Ongoing diplomatic efforts toward a US-Iran truce, limited responses to recent drone and missile incidents, and the absence of new major military escalations in the past month have reinforced expectations of continuity. The US midterms in November, presidential and parliamentary votes in Ethiopia, Brazil, and Sweden, plus the NPT review conference and US 250th anniversary observances, represent predictable institutional processes unlikely to produce unforeseen shocks. With no late-breaking crises or leadership changes altering trajectories in the last 30 days, market pricing reflects this baseline stability through year-end.