Escalating US-Iran conflict has driven near-total avoidance of the Strait of Hormuz, with effective closure to routine commercial traffic since early July 2026 following attacks on multiple tankers and LNG carriers. Data from Lloyd’s List and S&P Global show weekly vessel transits collapsing to roughly 40–53 in mid-July—well below the <50 threshold—versus normal levels exceeding 150, as shipowners face prohibitive war-risk premiums, mine threats, and direct strikes. This has rerouted Gulf oil and LNG flows, tightening global energy supply and elevating benchmark crude and freight rates. The 98.6% market-implied probability for fewer than 50 transits reflects traders’ assessment of sustained high operational risk through the week of July 20. A rapid ceasefire or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, though such developments remain unlikely in the near term given ongoing hostilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
<50 99.4%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
100-124 <1%
$553,940 Wol.
$553,940 Wol.
Jul 26, 2026
<50
Yes
50-74
No
75-99
No
100-124
No
125+
No
<50 99.4%
50-74 <1%
75-99 <1%
100-124 <1%
$553,940 Wol.
$553,940 Wol.
Jul 26, 2026
<50
$442,956 Wol.
Yes
50-74
$59,842 Wol.
No
75-99
$31,217 Wol.
No
100-124
$13,716 Wol.
No
125+
$6,209 Wol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating US-Iran conflict has driven near-total avoidance of the Strait of Hormuz, with effective closure to routine commercial traffic since early July 2026 following attacks on multiple tankers and LNG carriers. Data from Lloyd’s List and S&P Global show weekly vessel transits collapsing to roughly 40–53 in mid-July—well below the <50 threshold—versus normal levels exceeding 150, as shipowners face prohibitive war-risk premiums, mine threats, and direct strikes. This has rerouted Gulf oil and LNG flows, tightening global energy supply and elevating benchmark crude and freight rates. The 98.6% market-implied probability for fewer than 50 transits reflects traders’ assessment of sustained high operational risk through the week of July 20. A rapid ceasefire or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, though such developments remain unlikely in the near term given ongoing hostilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 17, 2026, 7:13 PM ET
Wolumen
$553,940Data zakończenia
Jul 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 17, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating US-Iran conflict has driven near-total avoidance of the Strait of Hormuz, with effective closure to routine commercial traffic since early July 2026 following attacks on multiple tankers and LNG carriers. Data from Lloyd’s List and S&P Global show weekly vessel transits collapsing to roughly 40–53 in mid-July—well below the <50 threshold—versus normal levels exceeding 150, as shipowners face prohibitive war-risk premiums, mine threats, and direct strikes. This has rerouted Gulf oil and LNG flows, tightening global energy supply and elevating benchmark crude and freight rates. The 98.6% market-implied probability for fewer than 50 transits reflects traders’ assessment of sustained high operational risk through the week of July 20. A rapid ceasefire or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, though such developments remain unlikely in the near term given ongoing hostilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$553,940Data zakończenia
Jul 26, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 17, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Escalating US-Iran conflict has driven near-total avoidance of the Strait of Hormuz, with effective closure to routine commercial traffic since early July 2026 following attacks on multiple tankers and LNG carriers. Data from Lloyd’s List and S&P Global show weekly vessel transits collapsing to roughly 40–53 in mid-July—well below the <50 threshold—versus normal levels exceeding 150, as shipowners face prohibitive war-risk premiums, mine threats, and direct strikes. This has rerouted Gulf oil and LNG flows, tightening global energy supply and elevating benchmark crude and freight rates. The 98.6% market-implied probability for fewer than 50 transits reflects traders’ assessment of sustained high operational risk through the week of July 20. A rapid ceasefire or verified mine clearance could lift volumes, though such developments remain unlikely in the near term given ongoing hostilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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