Stable mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic conditions underpin the 73% market-implied odds favoring no qualifying natural disaster, with NOAA and USGS data showing ENSO-neutral patterns and earthquake activity aligned with long-term baselines rather than elevated clustering. Global forecast models indicate typical probabilities for a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the U.S. or a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, absent the rapid intensification drivers or tectonic stress that historically trigger such extremes. Ongoing National Hurricane Center monitoring and USGS seismic updates through the Atlantic and Pacific seasons remain key variables, as any shift toward warmer sea-surface temperatures or anomalous fault activity could alter trader consensus before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$218,963 Wol.
$218,963 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$218,963 Wol.
$218,963 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stable mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic conditions underpin the 73% market-implied odds favoring no qualifying natural disaster, with NOAA and USGS data showing ENSO-neutral patterns and earthquake activity aligned with long-term baselines rather than elevated clustering. Global forecast models indicate typical probabilities for a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the U.S. or a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, absent the rapid intensification drivers or tectonic stress that historically trigger such extremes. Ongoing National Hurricane Center monitoring and USGS seismic updates through the Atlantic and Pacific seasons remain key variables, as any shift toward warmer sea-surface temperatures or anomalous fault activity could alter trader consensus before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$218,963Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Stable mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic conditions underpin the 73% market-implied odds favoring no qualifying natural disaster, with NOAA and USGS data showing ENSO-neutral patterns and earthquake activity aligned with long-term baselines rather than elevated clustering. Global forecast models indicate typical probabilities for a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the U.S. or a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, absent the rapid intensification drivers or tectonic stress that historically trigger such extremes. Ongoing National Hurricane Center monitoring and USGS seismic updates through the Atlantic and Pacific seasons remain key variables, as any shift toward warmer sea-surface temperatures or anomalous fault activity could alter trader consensus before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$218,963Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stable mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic conditions underpin the 73% market-implied odds favoring no qualifying natural disaster, with NOAA and USGS data showing ENSO-neutral patterns and earthquake activity aligned with long-term baselines rather than elevated clustering. Global forecast models indicate typical probabilities for a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the U.S. or a VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, absent the rapid intensification drivers or tectonic stress that historically trigger such extremes. Ongoing National Hurricane Center monitoring and USGS seismic updates through the Atlantic and Pacific seasons remain key variables, as any shift toward warmer sea-surface temperatures or anomalous fault activity could alter trader consensus before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania