Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through late April despite recent seismic activity—a magnitude 7.4 earthquake off Japan on April 20 per USGS fell well short of the 8.5+ moment magnitude threshold, which occurs globally less than once per decade on average. No Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruptions have been recorded by USGS monitoring, nor 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts via NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies fireball data. Colorado State University's April forecast anticipates below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid fading La Niña conditions, historically limiting Saffir-Simpson Category 5 U.S. landfalls to under 5% annual odds per NOAA records. Continuous agency surveillance and National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks from June onward remain pivotal amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$213,123 Wol.
$213,123 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$213,123 Wol.
$213,123 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through late April despite recent seismic activity—a magnitude 7.4 earthquake off Japan on April 20 per USGS fell well short of the 8.5+ moment magnitude threshold, which occurs globally less than once per decade on average. No Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruptions have been recorded by USGS monitoring, nor 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts via NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies fireball data. Colorado State University's April forecast anticipates below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid fading La Niña conditions, historically limiting Saffir-Simpson Category 5 U.S. landfalls to under 5% annual odds per NOAA records. Continuous agency surveillance and National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks from June onward remain pivotal amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$213,123Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through late April despite recent seismic activity—a magnitude 7.4 earthquake off Japan on April 20 per USGS fell well short of the 8.5+ moment magnitude threshold, which occurs globally less than once per decade on average. No Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruptions have been recorded by USGS monitoring, nor 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts via NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies fireball data. Colorado State University's April forecast anticipates below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid fading La Niña conditions, historically limiting Saffir-Simpson Category 5 U.S. landfalls to under 5% annual odds per NOAA records. Continuous agency surveillance and National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks from June onward remain pivotal amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$213,123Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 73.5% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through late April despite recent seismic activity—a magnitude 7.4 earthquake off Japan on April 20 per USGS fell well short of the 8.5+ moment magnitude threshold, which occurs globally less than once per decade on average. No Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruptions have been recorded by USGS monitoring, nor 10-kiloton+ meteor airbursts via NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies fireball data. Colorado State University's April forecast anticipates below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid fading La Niña conditions, historically limiting Saffir-Simpson Category 5 U.S. landfalls to under 5% annual odds per NOAA records. Continuous agency surveillance and National Hurricane Center seasonal outlooks from June onward remain pivotal amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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