Recent global surface temperature observations from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus place April 2026 anomalies at approximately 1.12°C above the 20th-century baseline, aligning closely with the market's dominant 1.10–1.14°C range for May. This positioning reflects the ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming trend superimposed on a weak La Niña phase that has moderated extremes without reversing the trajectory, as confirmed by sea-surface temperature patterns and model consensus. Historical analogs and early 2026 data releases show limited month-to-month volatility at this scale, supporting trader consensus on stability near current levels. Official May 2026 reports expected in coming weeks represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities if anomalies deviate notably.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.0%
<1.10ºC 1.9%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,639 Wol.
$192,639 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.0%
<1.10ºC 1.9%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,639 Wol.
$192,639 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$61,061 Wol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,383 Wol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,336 Wol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,026 Wol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,425 Wol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,428 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature observations from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus place April 2026 anomalies at approximately 1.12°C above the 20th-century baseline, aligning closely with the market's dominant 1.10–1.14°C range for May. This positioning reflects the ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming trend superimposed on a weak La Niña phase that has moderated extremes without reversing the trajectory, as confirmed by sea-surface temperature patterns and model consensus. Historical analogs and early 2026 data releases show limited month-to-month volatility at this scale, supporting trader consensus on stability near current levels. Official May 2026 reports expected in coming weeks represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities if anomalies deviate notably.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$192,639Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature observations from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus place April 2026 anomalies at approximately 1.12°C above the 20th-century baseline, aligning closely with the market's dominant 1.10–1.14°C range for May. This positioning reflects the ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming trend superimposed on a weak La Niña phase that has moderated extremes without reversing the trajectory, as confirmed by sea-surface temperature patterns and model consensus. Historical analogs and early 2026 data releases show limited month-to-month volatility at this scale, supporting trader consensus on stability near current levels. Official May 2026 reports expected in coming weeks represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities if anomalies deviate notably.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$192,639Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global surface temperature observations from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus place April 2026 anomalies at approximately 1.12°C above the 20th-century baseline, aligning closely with the market's dominant 1.10–1.14°C range for May. This positioning reflects the ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming trend superimposed on a weak La Niña phase that has moderated extremes without reversing the trajectory, as confirmed by sea-surface temperature patterns and model consensus. Historical analogs and early 2026 data releases show limited month-to-month volatility at this scale, supporting trader consensus on stability near current levels. Official May 2026 reports expected in coming weeks represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities if anomalies deviate notably.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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