The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly toward +0.9 °C in the Niño 3.4 region by mid-May 2026, stands as the main driver keeping the 1.10–1.14 °C bin in the lead. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides a steady baseline near 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, while the emerging El Niño adds a modest positive boost to global mean surface temperatures this month. Early 2026 observations, including January anomalies of 1.12 °C, align with this range, and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño formation by May–July without yet indicating extreme amplification. Traders are monitoring upcoming weekly Niño indices and May temperature releases from NOAA and NASA for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 54%
<1.10ºC 22%
1.15–1.19ºC 7%
1.20–1.24ºC 1.9%
$85,807 Wol.
$85,807 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
22%
1.10–1.14ºC
54%
1.15–1.19ºC
7%
1.20–1.24ºC
2%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 54%
<1.10ºC 22%
1.15–1.19ºC 7%
1.20–1.24ºC 1.9%
$85,807 Wol.
$85,807 Wol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,816 Wol.
22%
1.10–1.14ºC
$8,596 Wol.
54%
1.15–1.19ºC
$15,036 Wol.
7%
1.20–1.24ºC
$11,552 Wol.
2%
1.25–1.29ºC
$9,978 Wol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$12,830 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly toward +0.9 °C in the Niño 3.4 region by mid-May 2026, stands as the main driver keeping the 1.10–1.14 °C bin in the lead. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides a steady baseline near 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, while the emerging El Niño adds a modest positive boost to global mean surface temperatures this month. Early 2026 observations, including January anomalies of 1.12 °C, align with this range, and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño formation by May–July without yet indicating extreme amplification. Traders are monitoring upcoming weekly Niño indices and May temperature releases from NOAA and NASA for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$85,807Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly toward +0.9 °C in the Niño 3.4 region by mid-May 2026, stands as the main driver keeping the 1.10–1.14 °C bin in the lead. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides a steady baseline near 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, while the emerging El Niño adds a modest positive boost to global mean surface temperatures this month. Early 2026 observations, including January anomalies of 1.12 °C, align with this range, and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño formation by May–July without yet indicating extreme amplification. Traders are monitoring upcoming weekly Niño indices and May temperature releases from NOAA and NASA for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$85,807Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly toward +0.9 °C in the Niño 3.4 region by mid-May 2026, stands as the main driver keeping the 1.10–1.14 °C bin in the lead. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides a steady baseline near 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, while the emerging El Niño adds a modest positive boost to global mean surface temperatures this month. Early 2026 observations, including January anomalies of 1.12 °C, align with this range, and multi-model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño formation by May–July without yet indicating extreme amplification. Traders are monitoring upcoming weekly Niño indices and May temperature releases from NOAA and NASA for any shifts in these implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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