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icon for May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

icon for May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.10–1.14ºC 97.0%

<1.10ºC 1.9%

1.15–1.19ºC <1%

1.20–1.24ºC <1%

Polymarket

$192,639 Wol.

1.10–1.14ºC 97.0%

<1.10ºC 1.9%

1.15–1.19ºC <1%

1.20–1.24ºC <1%

Polymarket

$192,639 Wol.

<1.10ºC

$61,061 Wol.

2%

1.10–1.14ºC

$24,383 Wol.

97%

1.15–1.19ºC

$37,336 Wol.

1%

1.20–1.24ºC

$23,026 Wol.

<1%

1.25–1.29ºC

$20,425 Wol.

<1%

>1.29ºC

$26,428 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature observations from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus place April 2026 anomalies at approximately 1.12°C above the 20th-century baseline, aligning closely with the market's dominant 1.10–1.14°C range for May. This positioning reflects the ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming trend superimposed on a weak La Niña phase that has moderated extremes without reversing the trajectory, as confirmed by sea-surface temperature patterns and model consensus. Historical analogs and early 2026 data releases show limited month-to-month volatility at this scale, supporting trader consensus on stability near current levels. Official May 2026 reports expected in coming weeks represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities if anomalies deviate notably.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$192,639
Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global surface temperature observations from agencies including NOAA and Copernicus place April 2026 anomalies at approximately 1.12°C above the 20th-century baseline, aligning closely with the market's dominant 1.10–1.14°C range for May. This positioning reflects the ongoing long-term anthropogenic warming trend superimposed on a weak La Niña phase that has moderated extremes without reversing the trajectory, as confirmed by sea-surface temperature patterns and model consensus. Historical analogs and early 2026 data releases show limited month-to-month volatility at this scale, supporting trader consensus on stability near current levels. Official May 2026 reports expected in coming weeks represent the primary near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities if anomalies deviate notably.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$192,639
Data zakończenia
Jun 10, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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Często zadawane pytania

"May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 6 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "1.10–1.14ºC" z 97%, za nim "<1.10ºC" z 2%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 97¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 97% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" wygenerował $192.6K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Apr 27, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)", przeglądaj 6 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" jest "1.10–1.14ºC" z 97%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 97% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "<1.10ºC" z 2%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.