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icon for 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

icon for 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest 100.0%

2nd hottest <1%

3rd hottest <1%

4th or lower <1%

Polymarket

$181,149 Wol.

1st hottest 100.0%

2nd hottest <1%

3rd hottest <1%

4th or lower <1%

Polymarket

$181,149 Wol.

1st hottest

$88,121 Wol.

Yes

2nd hottest

$35,805 Wol.

No

3rd hottest

$36,207 Wol.

No

4th or lower

$21,016 Wol.

No

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**Intense early-July heat across North America drove global daily mean surface air temperatures to record levels on one of July 1–3, 2026.** Widespread heat domes produced all-time daily highs from the eastern U.S. to the Plains, with multiple cities exceeding 100–106 °F (38–41 °C) on July 2 and contributing to an exceptional spike in the ERA5 global average. Official reanalysis products from Copernicus and related agencies place one of those three days at the top of the historical daily series, exceeding prior peaks such as July 2024. This outcome aligns with the strong 100 % market-implied probability for “1st hottest.” Realistic challenges remain limited but include final post-processing revisions to the reanalysis dataset or measurement uncertainties in sparsely observed regions that could shift the precise daily ranking by small margins. No subsequent July 2026 days have approached the same global mean, reinforcing the current consensus.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.

Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Wolumen
$181,149
Data zakończenia
Jul 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Wynik zaproponowany: Yes

Brak sporu

Ostateczny wynik: Yes

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**Intense early-July heat across North America drove global daily mean surface air temperatures to record levels on one of July 1–3, 2026.** Widespread heat domes produced all-time daily highs from the eastern U.S. to the Plains, with multiple cities exceeding 100–106 °F (38–41 °C) on July 2 and contributing to an exceptional spike in the ERA5 global average. Official reanalysis products from Copernicus and related agencies place one of those three days at the top of the historical daily series, exceeding prior peaks such as July 2024. This outcome aligns with the strong 100 % market-implied probability for “1st hottest.” Realistic challenges remain limited but include final post-processing revisions to the reanalysis dataset or measurement uncertainties in sparsely observed regions that could shift the precise daily ranking by small margins. No subsequent July 2026 days have approached the same global mean, reinforcing the current consensus.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.

Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Wolumen
$181,149
Data zakończenia
Jul 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Wynik zaproponowany: Yes

Brak sporu

Ostateczny wynik: Yes

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Często zadawane pytania

"2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 4 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "1st hottest" z 100%, za nim "2nd hottest" z 0%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 100¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 100% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" wygenerował $181.1K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Jul 6, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?", przeglądaj 4 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" jest "1st hottest" z 100%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 100% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "2nd hottest" z 0%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.