Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change markets reflects deep uncertainty over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's de facto control, stemming from his severe injuries in the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli airstrike that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Appointed March 8 amid IRGC pressure, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, fueling rumors of coma, disfigurement, or incapacity, with recent statements—such as April 18 warnings of naval action against U.S. and Israeli forces—delivered via state TV readers. Odds imply low near-term risk (4% by April 30, 13% by May 31) but rise to 33% by December 31, driven by IRGC factional rivalries, Hormuz Strait standoffs, and fragile ceasefire expiration around April 22, amid broader regime stability challenges.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$9,372,414 Wol.
Apr 30, 2026
30 kwietnia
4%
31 maja
12%
30 czerwca
19%
31 grudnia
32%
$9,372,414 Wol.
30 kwietnia
$3,297,444 Wol.
4%
31 maja
$551,570 Wol.
12%
30 czerwca
$486,800 Wol.
19%
31 grudnia
$1,807,759 Wol.
32%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change markets reflects deep uncertainty over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's de facto control, stemming from his severe injuries in the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli airstrike that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Appointed March 8 amid IRGC pressure, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, fueling rumors of coma, disfigurement, or incapacity, with recent statements—such as April 18 warnings of naval action against U.S. and Israeli forces—delivered via state TV readers. Odds imply low near-term risk (4% by April 30, 13% by May 31) but rise to 33% by December 31, driven by IRGC factional rivalries, Hormuz Strait standoffs, and fragile ceasefire expiration around April 22, amid broader regime stability challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Wolumen
$9,372,414Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change markets reflects deep uncertainty over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's de facto control, stemming from his severe injuries in the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli airstrike that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Appointed March 8 amid IRGC pressure, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, fueling rumors of coma, disfigurement, or incapacity, with recent statements—such as April 18 warnings of naval action against U.S. and Israeli forces—delivered via state TV readers. Odds imply low near-term risk (4% by April 30, 13% by May 31) but rise to 33% by December 31, driven by IRGC factional rivalries, Hormuz Strait standoffs, and fragile ceasefire expiration around April 22, amid broader regime stability challenges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$9,372,414Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Iran leadership change markets reflects deep uncertainty over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's de facto control, stemming from his severe injuries in the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli airstrike that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Appointed March 8 amid IRGC pressure, Mojtaba has made no public appearances, fueling rumors of coma, disfigurement, or incapacity, with recent statements—such as April 18 warnings of naval action against U.S. and Israeli forces—delivered via state TV readers. Odds imply low near-term risk (4% by April 30, 13% by May 31) but rise to 33% by December 31, driven by IRGC factional rivalries, Hormuz Strait standoffs, and fragile ceasefire expiration around April 22, amid broader regime stability challenges.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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