Mojtaba Khamenei has served as Iran's Supreme Leader since his March 2026 appointment following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, yet he has issued only written statements and avoided any authenticated public appearance, photo, or video for over seven months. Iranian officials cite ongoing security threats from the U.S.-Israel conflict as the primary reason, while delegating day-to-day responsibilities and releasing periodic messages on military, economic, and religious matters. Senior figures, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have offered unverified accounts of private meetings and affirmed his health, alongside claims from regime insiders about sightings at funerals or rallies, but none include independent visual confirmation. Traders price low odds of a public appearance by year-end because of this established pattern of seclusion, reinforced by tightened protections around leadership and the absence of scheduled events like Friday prayers or state ceremonies that would require visible participation. Resolution hinges on credible reporting plus authenticated imagery.