Iran has issued repeated threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since the 2025 strikes on its facilities, with parliamentary bills introduced in June 2025 and revived in March 2026 citing supreme national interests under Article X. Despite this rhetoric and the failure of the May 2026 NPT Review Conference to reach consensus amid disputes over Iran’s program, Tehran has maintained its status as a state party, continued limited IAEA engagement where required, and participated in the conference itself. Withdrawal would forfeit Article IV rights to peaceful nuclear technology cooperation, invite broader isolation, and remove a key diplomatic lever, factors that appear to have kept formal exit off the immediate agenda through mid-2026. Traders price the “no” outcome at 89.5% on the view that these structural disincentives and ongoing diplomatic channels outweigh escalation pressures before the 2027 deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
11% szansa
$321,040 Wol.
$321,040 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
11% szansa
$321,040 Wol.
$321,040 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran has issued repeated threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since the 2025 strikes on its facilities, with parliamentary bills introduced in June 2025 and revived in March 2026 citing supreme national interests under Article X. Despite this rhetoric and the failure of the May 2026 NPT Review Conference to reach consensus amid disputes over Iran’s program, Tehran has maintained its status as a state party, continued limited IAEA engagement where required, and participated in the conference itself. Withdrawal would forfeit Article IV rights to peaceful nuclear technology cooperation, invite broader isolation, and remove a key diplomatic lever, factors that appear to have kept formal exit off the immediate agenda through mid-2026. Traders price the “no” outcome at 89.5% on the view that these structural disincentives and ongoing diplomatic channels outweigh escalation pressures before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$321,040Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran has issued repeated threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since the 2025 strikes on its facilities, with parliamentary bills introduced in June 2025 and revived in March 2026 citing supreme national interests under Article X. Despite this rhetoric and the failure of the May 2026 NPT Review Conference to reach consensus amid disputes over Iran’s program, Tehran has maintained its status as a state party, continued limited IAEA engagement where required, and participated in the conference itself. Withdrawal would forfeit Article IV rights to peaceful nuclear technology cooperation, invite broader isolation, and remove a key diplomatic lever, factors that appear to have kept formal exit off the immediate agenda through mid-2026. Traders price the “no” outcome at 89.5% on the view that these structural disincentives and ongoing diplomatic channels outweigh escalation pressures before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$321,040Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran has issued repeated threats to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since the 2025 strikes on its facilities, with parliamentary bills introduced in June 2025 and revived in March 2026 citing supreme national interests under Article X. Despite this rhetoric and the failure of the May 2026 NPT Review Conference to reach consensus amid disputes over Iran’s program, Tehran has maintained its status as a state party, continued limited IAEA engagement where required, and participated in the conference itself. Withdrawal would forfeit Article IV rights to peaceful nuclear technology cooperation, invite broader isolation, and remove a key diplomatic lever, factors that appear to have kept formal exit off the immediate agenda through mid-2026. Traders price the “no” outcome at 89.5% on the view that these structural disincentives and ongoing diplomatic channels outweigh escalation pressures before the 2027 deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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