Ongoing US sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, combined with a naval blockade restricting Iranian oil exports, have driven the rial to repeated record lows near 2.6-2.7 million per USD in recent weeks amid high inflation near 90 percent and sharp economic contraction. Indirect negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and potential shifts in enforcement or diplomacy create uncertainty about whether foreign currency inflows will recover or remain constrained through year-end. Central bank interventions, including up to $2 billion in support, and persistent capital flight pressures add further variables. Trader consensus remains tightly split between the 2.5-3.0 million and 3.0-3.5 million bands, as participants weigh sustained sanctions effects against possible de-escalation scenarios before December.