Houthi forces maintain control over Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, Mokha port, and islands including Perim and the Hanish group following September 2026 advances, enabling targeted strikes on Saudi-linked vessels and a de facto ban on that traffic since July. A Saudi-backed Yemeni government counteroffensive in early October produced conflicting claims of regained positions, with independent verification absent and shipping lanes remaining contested. IMF PortWatch data show tanker and vessel transits reduced 15-60 percent from baselines but still well above the market’s effective-closure threshold of a seven-day average of 10 arrivals or fewer. Traders price only modest odds of that threshold being hit by December 31 because sustained partial flows continue amid rerouting incentives, insurance adjustments, and the absence of a total blockade declaration. Further escalation in ground or naval fighting, or verified territorial shifts, could alter volumes before year-end.