**The signed July 2026 U.S.-Saudi Section 123 agreement on civilian nuclear cooperation faces multiple procedural and political barriers to entering into force before the end of the year.** The pact, transmitted to Congress in late August, enters into effect after 90 session days unless both chambers pass a joint resolution of disapproval under the Atomic Energy Act. President Trump has publicly conditioned forward movement on Saudi normalization with Israel via the Abraham Accords, a step Riyadh continues to link to progress on Palestinian statehood. Congressional scrutiny centers on nonproliferation provisions, including the absence of the IAEA Additional Protocol and the framework for a potential future enrichment study, while regional dynamics and competing legislative priorities add uncertainty. These factors underpin traders' strong consensus that full implementation will not occur in 2026.