Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome for Federal Reserve decisions across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with 91% implied probability reflecting real capital backing amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 17-18 meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, reinforced by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%. February PCE inflation held at 2.8% annually, signaling persistent price pressures above target. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch probabilities for holds. Scenarios challenging this include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially prompting rate cut repricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDecyzje Fed (marzec-czerwiec)
Decyzje Fed (marzec-czerwiec)
Pauza–Pauza–Pauza 91%
Zatrzymanie–zatrzymanie–obniżka 7%
Inne 1.4%
Zatrzymanie–Obniżka–Zatrzymanie 1.1%
$907,783 Wol.
$907,783 Wol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pauza–Pauza–Pauza
91%
Zatrzymanie–zatrzymanie–obniżka
7%
Inne
1%
Zatrzymanie–Obniżka–Zatrzymanie
1%
Wstrzymanie–Obniżka–Obniżka
1%
Pauza–Pauza–Pauza 91%
Zatrzymanie–zatrzymanie–obniżka 7%
Inne 1.4%
Zatrzymanie–Obniżka–Zatrzymanie 1.1%
$907,783 Wol.
$907,783 Wol.
Jun 17, 2026
Pauza–Pauza–Pauza
$32,968 Wol.
91%
Zatrzymanie–zatrzymanie–obniżka
$15,303 Wol.
7%
Inne
$216,634 Wol.
1%
Zatrzymanie–Obniżka–Zatrzymanie
$132,599 Wol.
1%
Wstrzymanie–Obniżka–Obniżka
$510,280 Wol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome for Federal Reserve decisions across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with 91% implied probability reflecting real capital backing amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 17-18 meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, reinforced by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%. February PCE inflation held at 2.8% annually, signaling persistent price pressures above target. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch probabilities for holds. Scenarios challenging this include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially prompting rate cut repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$907,783Data zakończenia
Jun 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome for Federal Reserve decisions across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with 91% implied probability reflecting real capital backing amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 17-18 meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, reinforced by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%. February PCE inflation held at 2.8% annually, signaling persistent price pressures above target. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch probabilities for holds. Scenarios challenging this include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially prompting rate cut repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$907,783Data zakończenia
Jun 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome for Federal Reserve decisions across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with 91% implied probability reflecting real capital backing amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The March 17-18 meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, reinforced by March CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, dropping unemployment to 4.3%. February PCE inflation held at 2.8% annually, signaling persistent price pressures above target. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch probabilities for holds. Scenarios challenging this include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially prompting rate cut repricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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