**Elevated inflation and resilient economic data have driven the near-certain market-implied odds for an “Other” outcome in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market.** Persistent price pressures, with PCE inflation projections revised up to around 3.7% for 2026, prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June, July, and August meetings before delivering a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4% on September 16. This sequence—three pauses followed by a tightening move—falls outside the specific pause-pause-pause or pause-pause-cut paths priced at just 0.1% each. The hawkish pivot reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Updated dot plots show most participants now see at least one additional rate increase by year-end, shifting market-implied odds away from further easing. Realistic scenarios that could still influence resolution include sharper-than-expected inflation moderation from falling energy prices or weaker growth data that might prompt a reversal at the final 2026 meetings, though current conditions point to continued policy caution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 100.0%
Cut–Pause–Pause <1%
Cut–Pause–Cut <1%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
$894,797 Wol.
$894,797 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
No
Other
Yes
Other 100.0%
Cut–Pause–Pause <1%
Cut–Pause–Cut <1%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
$894,797 Wol.
$894,797 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$2,241 Wol.
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
$2,230 Wol.
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
$1,265 Wol.
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
$1,915 Wol.
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
$349,718 Wol.
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
$104,255 Wol.
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
$30,491 Wol.
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
$17,736 Wol.
No
Other
$384,947 Wol.
Yes
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and resilient economic data have driven the near-certain market-implied odds for an “Other” outcome in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market.** Persistent price pressures, with PCE inflation projections revised up to around 3.7% for 2026, prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June, July, and August meetings before delivering a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4% on September 16. This sequence—three pauses followed by a tightening move—falls outside the specific pause-pause-pause or pause-pause-cut paths priced at just 0.1% each.
The hawkish pivot reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Updated dot plots show most participants now see at least one additional rate increase by year-end, shifting market-implied odds away from further easing.
Realistic scenarios that could still influence resolution include sharper-than-expected inflation moderation from falling energy prices or weaker growth data that might prompt a reversal at the final 2026 meetings, though current conditions point to continued policy caution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$894,797Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and resilient economic data have driven the near-certain market-implied odds for an “Other” outcome in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market.** Persistent price pressures, with PCE inflation projections revised up to around 3.7% for 2026, prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June, July, and August meetings before delivering a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4% on September 16. This sequence—three pauses followed by a tightening move—falls outside the specific pause-pause-pause or pause-pause-cut paths priced at just 0.1% each.
The hawkish pivot reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Updated dot plots show most participants now see at least one additional rate increase by year-end, shifting market-implied odds away from further easing.
Realistic scenarios that could still influence resolution include sharper-than-expected inflation moderation from falling energy prices or weaker growth data that might prompt a reversal at the final 2026 meetings, though current conditions point to continued policy caution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$894,797Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
**Elevated inflation and resilient economic data have driven the near-certain market-implied odds for an “Other” outcome in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market.** Persistent price pressures, with PCE inflation projections revised up to around 3.7% for 2026, prompted the FOMC to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% through the June, July, and August meetings before delivering a 25 basis point hike to 3.75-4% on September 16. This sequence—three pauses followed by a tightening move—falls outside the specific pause-pause-pause or pause-pause-cut paths priced at just 0.1% each. The hawkish pivot reflects new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reinforced by solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. Updated dot plots show most participants now see at least one additional rate increase by year-end, shifting market-implied odds away from further easing. Realistic scenarios that could still influence resolution include sharper-than-expected inflation moderation from falling energy prices or weaker growth data that might prompt a reversal at the final 2026 meetings, though current conditions point to continued policy caution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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