Persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target and resilient economic data have driven market-implied odds for the June-July-September 2026 FOMC sequence heavily toward “Other” at 80.0%, reflecting the strong likelihood of at least one 25-basis-point hike after holds in the first two meetings. The July 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9-3, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of tightening, while incoming price and labor data since then have shifted futures pricing to an 87% probability of a September hike. Trader consensus embedded in the 19.5% Pause–Pause–Pause outcome and negligible 0.3% for a September cut continues to price in the risk that softer inflation or labor-market weakness could still alter the path before the September 16 announcement.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 80%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$871,169 Wol.
$871,169 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
80%
Other 80%
Pause–Pause–Pause 20%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$871,169 Wol.
$871,169 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$337,690 Wol.
20%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,997 Wol.
<1%
Other
$374,605 Wol.
80%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target and resilient economic data have driven market-implied odds for the June-July-September 2026 FOMC sequence heavily toward “Other” at 80.0%, reflecting the strong likelihood of at least one 25-basis-point hike after holds in the first two meetings. The July 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9-3, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of tightening, while incoming price and labor data since then have shifted futures pricing to an 87% probability of a September hike. Trader consensus embedded in the 19.5% Pause–Pause–Pause outcome and negligible 0.3% for a September cut continues to price in the risk that softer inflation or labor-market weakness could still alter the path before the September 16 announcement.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$871,169Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target and resilient economic data have driven market-implied odds for the June-July-September 2026 FOMC sequence heavily toward “Other” at 80.0%, reflecting the strong likelihood of at least one 25-basis-point hike after holds in the first two meetings. The July 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9-3, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of tightening, while incoming price and labor data since then have shifted futures pricing to an 87% probability of a September hike. Trader consensus embedded in the 19.5% Pause–Pause–Pause outcome and negligible 0.3% for a September cut continues to price in the risk that softer inflation or labor-market weakness could still alter the path before the September 16 announcement.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$871,169Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target and resilient economic data have driven market-implied odds for the June-July-September 2026 FOMC sequence heavily toward “Other” at 80.0%, reflecting the strong likelihood of at least one 25-basis-point hike after holds in the first two meetings. The July 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed 9-3, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of tightening, while incoming price and labor data since then have shifted futures pricing to an 87% probability of a September hike. Trader consensus embedded in the 19.5% Pause–Pause–Pause outcome and negligible 0.3% for a September cut continues to price in the risk that softer inflation or labor-market weakness could still alter the path before the September 16 announcement.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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