Trader sentiment heavily favors the Pause–Pause–Pause path for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings at 71% implied probability, driven by May 2026 CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid an energy price shock from Middle East tensions and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment. The federal funds rate has held steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range since April, with futures markets and recent Fed communications showing limited scope for easing given inflation well above the 2% goal. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game pricing of persistent price pressures outweighing any near-term growth concerns, though the June 16–17 meeting—with its updated dot plot—remains the key near-term catalyst that could reinforce or modestly shift the hold-through-September outlook.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.5%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
7%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
15%
Pause–Cut–Pause
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
22%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 71%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.5%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$139 Wol.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 Wol.
7%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 Wol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 Wol.
2%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$895 Wol.
71%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 Wol.
15%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Wol.
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Wol.
22%
Other
$169 Wol.
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment heavily favors the Pause–Pause–Pause path for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings at 71% implied probability, driven by May 2026 CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid an energy price shock from Middle East tensions and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment. The federal funds rate has held steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range since April, with futures markets and recent Fed communications showing limited scope for easing given inflation well above the 2% goal. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game pricing of persistent price pressures outweighing any near-term growth concerns, though the June 16–17 meeting—with its updated dot plot—remains the key near-term catalyst that could reinforce or modestly shift the hold-through-September outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,210Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment heavily favors the Pause–Pause–Pause path for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings at 71% implied probability, driven by May 2026 CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid an energy price shock from Middle East tensions and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment. The federal funds rate has held steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range since April, with futures markets and recent Fed communications showing limited scope for easing given inflation well above the 2% goal. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game pricing of persistent price pressures outweighing any near-term growth concerns, though the June 16–17 meeting—with its updated dot plot—remains the key near-term catalyst that could reinforce or modestly shift the hold-through-September outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$2,210Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment heavily favors the Pause–Pause–Pause path for the June, July, and September FOMC meetings at 71% implied probability, driven by May 2026 CPI accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid an energy price shock from Middle East tensions and a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment. The federal funds rate has held steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range since April, with futures markets and recent Fed communications showing limited scope for easing given inflation well above the 2% goal. This consensus reflects skin-in-the-game pricing of persistent price pressures outweighing any near-term growth concerns, though the June 16–17 meeting—with its updated dot plot—remains the key near-term catalyst that could reinforce or modestly shift the hold-through-September outlook.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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