Market-implied odds for the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings reflect divided trader views on the policy path, with Pause-Pause-Pause leading at 25.5% amid a cluster of outcomes between 6% and 17.5%. Elevated inflation readings, including July PCE near 3.7%, combined with a resilient labor market and supply pressures have shifted consensus toward potential 25-basis-point hikes, particularly at the September 16 meeting where futures assign roughly 59% probability. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach and removal of forward guidance have amplified sensitivity to incoming CPI, PPI, and employment releases, while the September SEP will provide updated dot-plot guidance. The narrow spread across sequences underscores uncertainty over whether any tightening proves one-off or sustained through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 13%
Pause–Hike–Pause 11.8%
$11,703 Wol.
$11,703 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
9%
Pause–Pause–Hike
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
12%
Other
8%
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 13%
Pause–Hike–Pause 11.8%
$11,703 Wol.
$11,703 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Wol.
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$489 Wol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Wol.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Wol.
9%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Wol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,180 Wol.
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Wol.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 Wol.
12%
Other
$249 Wol.
8%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings reflect divided trader views on the policy path, with Pause-Pause-Pause leading at 25.5% amid a cluster of outcomes between 6% and 17.5%. Elevated inflation readings, including July PCE near 3.7%, combined with a resilient labor market and supply pressures have shifted consensus toward potential 25-basis-point hikes, particularly at the September 16 meeting where futures assign roughly 59% probability. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach and removal of forward guidance have amplified sensitivity to incoming CPI, PPI, and employment releases, while the September SEP will provide updated dot-plot guidance. The narrow spread across sequences underscores uncertainty over whether any tightening proves one-off or sustained through year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$11,703Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmMarket-implied odds for the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings reflect divided trader views on the policy path, with Pause-Pause-Pause leading at 25.5% amid a cluster of outcomes between 6% and 17.5%. Elevated inflation readings, including July PCE near 3.7%, combined with a resilient labor market and supply pressures have shifted consensus toward potential 25-basis-point hikes, particularly at the September 16 meeting where futures assign roughly 59% probability. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach and removal of forward guidance have amplified sensitivity to incoming CPI, PPI, and employment releases, while the September SEP will provide updated dot-plot guidance. The narrow spread across sequences underscores uncertainty over whether any tightening proves one-off or sustained through year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$11,703Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings reflect divided trader views on the policy path, with Pause-Pause-Pause leading at 25.5% amid a cluster of outcomes between 6% and 17.5%. Elevated inflation readings, including July PCE near 3.7%, combined with a resilient labor market and supply pressures have shifted consensus toward potential 25-basis-point hikes, particularly at the September 16 meeting where futures assign roughly 59% probability. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s data-dependent approach and removal of forward guidance have amplified sensitivity to incoming CPI, PPI, and employment releases, while the September SEP will provide updated dot-plot guidance. The narrow spread across sequences underscores uncertainty over whether any tightening proves one-off or sustained through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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