Recent inflation data and labor market resilience have anchored trader expectations for a Hike–Pause–Hike sequence across the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings, reflected in the 66.5% market-implied probability for that path. Core CPI readings through September showed persistent price pressures above the 2% target, while nonfarm payrolls and wage growth remained firm, reducing odds of an immediate pause or cut. Hawkish signals from Fed speakers in early October reinforced the view that policymakers see limited room for easing, pushing the Hike–Pause–Pause alternative to just 21.5%. With the November FOMC decision and updated dot plot approaching, traders are monitoring upcoming employment and inflation releases for any shift in the rate path.