Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy shocks, has kept a modest probability of a federal funds rate hike alive in 2026 even as the current 3.75% target range and futures pricing point to limited net tightening. With the market-implied odds for no hike near 52%, traders weigh resilient labor market data against the risk that above-target inflation could force the FOMC to lift rates late in the year rather than hold steady or ease. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift the balance, while the March dot plot’s median path of gradual easing to around 3.1-3.4% by year-end underscores the narrow margin separating the two outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPodwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Podwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Tak
$1,483,862 Wol.
$1,483,862 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Tak
$1,483,862 Wol.
$1,483,862 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy shocks, has kept a modest probability of a federal funds rate hike alive in 2026 even as the current 3.75% target range and futures pricing point to limited net tightening. With the market-implied odds for no hike near 52%, traders weigh resilient labor market data against the risk that above-target inflation could force the FOMC to lift rates late in the year rather than hold steady or ease. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift the balance, while the March dot plot’s median path of gradual easing to around 3.1-3.4% by year-end underscores the narrow margin separating the two outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,483,862Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy shocks, has kept a modest probability of a federal funds rate hike alive in 2026 even as the current 3.75% target range and futures pricing point to limited net tightening. With the market-implied odds for no hike near 52%, traders weigh resilient labor market data against the risk that above-target inflation could force the FOMC to lift rates late in the year rather than hold steady or ease. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift the balance, while the March dot plot’s median path of gradual easing to around 3.1-3.4% by year-end underscores the narrow margin separating the two outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,483,975Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy shocks, has kept a modest probability of a federal funds rate hike alive in 2026 even as the current 3.75% target range and futures pricing point to limited net tightening. With the market-implied odds for no hike near 52%, traders weigh resilient labor market data against the risk that above-target inflation could force the FOMC to lift rates late in the year rather than hold steady or ease. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift the balance, while the March dot plot’s median path of gradual easing to around 3.1-3.4% by year-end underscores the narrow margin separating the two outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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