Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions have reinforced trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through 2026, supporting the 69% market-implied probability of no rate hike. April CPI and subsequent releases showed headline inflation rising toward 3.3%-3.8%, driven partly by energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, while the April FOMC minutes revealed growing openness among officials to policy firming if price pressures persist. With the federal funds rate already at restrictive levels and futures markets pricing limited tightening this year, the consensus favors holding steady at upcoming meetings, including the June FOMC, absent sharper upside surprises in core measures or labor data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPodwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Podwyżka stawek Fed w 2026 roku?
Tak
$1,359,753 Wol.
$1,359,753 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Tak
$1,359,753 Wol.
$1,359,753 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions have reinforced trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through 2026, supporting the 69% market-implied probability of no rate hike. April CPI and subsequent releases showed headline inflation rising toward 3.3%-3.8%, driven partly by energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, while the April FOMC minutes revealed growing openness among officials to policy firming if price pressures persist. With the federal funds rate already at restrictive levels and futures markets pricing limited tightening this year, the consensus favors holding steady at upcoming meetings, including the June FOMC, absent sharper upside surprises in core measures or labor data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,359,753Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions have reinforced trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through 2026, supporting the 69% market-implied probability of no rate hike. April CPI and subsequent releases showed headline inflation rising toward 3.3%-3.8%, driven partly by energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, while the April FOMC minutes revealed growing openness among officials to policy firming if price pressures persist. With the federal funds rate already at restrictive levels and futures markets pricing limited tightening this year, the consensus favors holding steady at upcoming meetings, including the June FOMC, absent sharper upside surprises in core measures or labor data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,359,753Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data and geopolitical tensions have reinforced trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain its 3.50%-3.75% target range through 2026, supporting the 69% market-implied probability of no rate hike. April CPI and subsequent releases showed headline inflation rising toward 3.3%-3.8%, driven partly by energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, while the April FOMC minutes revealed growing openness among officials to policy firming if price pressures persist. With the federal funds rate already at restrictive levels and futures markets pricing limited tightening this year, the consensus favors holding steady at upcoming meetings, including the June FOMC, absent sharper upside surprises in core measures or labor data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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