Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—has driven trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, primarily due to an energy-driven surge in gasoline and fuel oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% following its April 28-29 meeting, citing solid economic activity while noting risks to its dual mandate, though four members dissented. This inflation trajectory has shifted market-implied odds away from further easing toward a more balanced or hawkish stance, with Polymarket pricing a roughly 35% chance of any 2026 hike. The next policy decision arrives June 16-17, where fresh labor market and inflation readings could clarify whether the current 3.65% interest on reserve balances persists.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$154,138 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
12%
October Meeting
23%
$154,138 Wol.
June Meeting
$15,781 Wol.
1%
July Meeting
$1,768 Wol.
6%
September Meeting
$2,737 Wol.
12%
October Meeting
$2,545 Wol.
23%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—has driven trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, primarily due to an energy-driven surge in gasoline and fuel oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% following its April 28-29 meeting, citing solid economic activity while noting risks to its dual mandate, though four members dissented. This inflation trajectory has shifted market-implied odds away from further easing toward a more balanced or hawkish stance, with Polymarket pricing a roughly 35% chance of any 2026 hike. The next policy decision arrives June 16-17, where fresh labor market and inflation readings could clarify whether the current 3.65% interest on reserve balances persists.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$154,138Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—has driven trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, primarily due to an energy-driven surge in gasoline and fuel oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% following its April 28-29 meeting, citing solid economic activity while noting risks to its dual mandate, though four members dissented. This inflation trajectory has shifted market-implied odds away from further easing toward a more balanced or hawkish stance, with Polymarket pricing a roughly 35% chance of any 2026 hike. The next policy decision arrives June 16-17, where fresh labor market and inflation readings could clarify whether the current 3.65% interest on reserve balances persists.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$154,138Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—has driven trader sentiment toward the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike, primarily due to an energy-driven surge in gasoline and fuel oil prices amid geopolitical tensions. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% following its April 28-29 meeting, citing solid economic activity while noting risks to its dual mandate, though four members dissented. This inflation trajectory has shifted market-implied odds away from further easing toward a more balanced or hawkish stance, with Polymarket pricing a roughly 35% chance of any 2026 hike. The next policy decision arrives June 16-17, where fresh labor market and inflation readings could clarify whether the current 3.65% interest on reserve balances persists.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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