The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% after its March 2026 FOMC meeting, but March CPI jumped to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—fueled by a war-related oil shock, with minutes released April 8 signaling some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks. Yet, CME FedWatch Tool reflects trader consensus with over 99% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, supported by unemployment holding at 4.3% and 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%. Traders eye the upcoming FOMC statement, dot plot revisions, and April CPI data for shifts in the 2026 rate path amid persistent energy pressures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$31,363 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
April Meeting
1%
June Meeting
4%
July Meeting
12%
September Meeting
15%
October Meeting
27%
$31,363 Wol.
April Meeting
$24,301 Wol.
1%
June Meeting
$6,580 Wol.
4%
July Meeting
$414 Wol.
12%
September Meeting
$3 Wol.
15%
October Meeting
$64 Wol.
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% after its March 2026 FOMC meeting, but March CPI jumped to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—fueled by a war-related oil shock, with minutes released April 8 signaling some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks. Yet, CME FedWatch Tool reflects trader consensus with over 99% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, supported by unemployment holding at 4.3% and 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%. Traders eye the upcoming FOMC statement, dot plot revisions, and April CPI data for shifts in the 2026 rate path amid persistent energy pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$31,363Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% after its March 2026 FOMC meeting, but March CPI jumped to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—fueled by a war-related oil shock, with minutes released April 8 signaling some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks. Yet, CME FedWatch Tool reflects trader consensus with over 99% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, supported by unemployment holding at 4.3% and 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%. Traders eye the upcoming FOMC statement, dot plot revisions, and April CPI data for shifts in the 2026 rate path amid persistent energy pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$31,363Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% after its March 2026 FOMC meeting, but March CPI jumped to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—fueled by a war-related oil shock, with minutes released April 8 signaling some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks. Yet, CME FedWatch Tool reflects trader consensus with over 99% implied probability of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, supported by unemployment holding at 4.3% and 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%. Traders eye the upcoming FOMC statement, dot plot revisions, and April CPI data for shifts in the 2026 rate path amid persistent energy pressures.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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