Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts, as the central bank holds the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%. April FOMC minutes revealed growing discussion among officials about policy firming if price pressures remain above the 2% goal amid resilient demand and stable labor conditions. Futures markets now price a gradual rise in the policy path toward 3.7% by late 2026, contrasting earlier expectations of easing. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance, while incoming core PCE data and any further inflation surprises represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the rate path priced by traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$154,138 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
12%
October Meeting
24%
$154,138 Wol.
June Meeting
$15,781 Wol.
1%
July Meeting
$1,768 Wol.
6%
September Meeting
$2,737 Wol.
12%
October Meeting
$2,545 Wol.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts, as the central bank holds the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%. April FOMC minutes revealed growing discussion among officials about policy firming if price pressures remain above the 2% goal amid resilient demand and stable labor conditions. Futures markets now price a gradual rise in the policy path toward 3.7% by late 2026, contrasting earlier expectations of easing. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance, while incoming core PCE data and any further inflation surprises represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the rate path priced by traders.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$154,138Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts, as the central bank holds the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%. April FOMC minutes revealed growing discussion among officials about policy firming if price pressures remain above the 2% goal amid resilient demand and stable labor conditions. Futures markets now price a gradual rise in the policy path toward 3.7% by late 2026, contrasting earlier expectations of easing. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance, while incoming core PCE data and any further inflation surprises represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the rate path priced by traders.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$154,138Data zakończenia
Oct 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential Federal Reserve rate hikes rather than cuts, as the central bank holds the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%. April FOMC minutes revealed growing discussion among officials about policy firming if price pressures remain above the 2% goal amid resilient demand and stable labor conditions. Futures markets now price a gradual rise in the policy path toward 3.7% by late 2026, contrasting earlier expectations of easing. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to maintain the current stance, while incoming core PCE data and any further inflation surprises represent key near-term catalysts that could influence the rate path priced by traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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