Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 92.5% implied probability for pause-pause-pause across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75%, recent FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and delayed any easing expectations into late 2026 or beyond, aligning market-implied odds with the Fed’s data-dependent stance. The June 16–17 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and the dot plot, represents the next key catalyst. Scenarios that could still challenge this consensus include a sharp deterioration in employment data or faster-than-expected disinflation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.5%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$54,187 Wol.
$54,187 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Other 5.5%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$54,187 Wol.
$54,187 Wol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,808 Wol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 Wol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,623 Wol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,886 Wol.
1%
Other
$1,967 Wol.
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 92.5% implied probability for pause-pause-pause across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75%, recent FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and delayed any easing expectations into late 2026 or beyond, aligning market-implied odds with the Fed’s data-dependent stance. The June 16–17 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and the dot plot, represents the next key catalyst. Scenarios that could still challenge this consensus include a sharp deterioration in employment data or faster-than-expected disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$54,187Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 92.5% implied probability for pause-pause-pause across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75%, recent FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and delayed any easing expectations into late 2026 or beyond, aligning market-implied odds with the Fed’s data-dependent stance. The June 16–17 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and the dot plot, represents the next key catalyst. Scenarios that could still challenge this consensus include a sharp deterioration in employment data or faster-than-expected disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$54,187Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment, underpins the 92.5% implied probability for pause-pause-pause across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. With the federal funds target range anchored at 3.50–3.75%, recent FOMC minutes highlighted upside inflation risks and delayed any easing expectations into late 2026 or beyond, aligning market-implied odds with the Fed’s data-dependent stance. The June 16–17 meeting, featuring updated economic projections and the dot plot, represents the next key catalyst. Scenarios that could still challenge this consensus include a sharp deterioration in employment data or faster-than-expected disinflation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania