Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and resilient economic growth. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly rise, the hottest since mid-2024, while unemployment held steady at 4.3% amid falling initial jobless claims to 207,000. March 17-18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed policymakers' growing openness to hikes if inflation reaccelerates, tempering cut expectations to just one 25 basis point reduction for all of 2026 per dot plots. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the immediate test, with CME FedWatch showing over 95% odds of a pause.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.9%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 9%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.9%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$829 Wol.
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$676 Wol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$730 Wol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$756 Wol.
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,380 Wol.
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$936 Wol.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$545 Wol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$739 Wol.
3%
Other
$906 Wol.
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and resilient economic growth. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly rise, the hottest since mid-2024, while unemployment held steady at 4.3% amid falling initial jobless claims to 207,000. March 17-18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed policymakers' growing openness to hikes if inflation reaccelerates, tempering cut expectations to just one 25 basis point reduction for all of 2026 per dot plots. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the immediate test, with CME FedWatch showing over 95% odds of a pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,495Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and resilient economic growth. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly rise, the hottest since mid-2024, while unemployment held steady at 4.3% amid falling initial jobless claims to 207,000. March 17-18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed policymakers' growing openness to hikes if inflation reaccelerates, tempering cut expectations to just one 25 basis point reduction for all of 2026 per dot plots. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the immediate test, with CME FedWatch showing over 95% odds of a pause.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$7,495Data zakończenia
Jul 29, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and resilient economic growth. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—with a 0.9% monthly rise, the hottest since mid-2024, while unemployment held steady at 4.3% amid falling initial jobless claims to 207,000. March 17-18 FOMC minutes, released April 8, revealed policymakers' growing openness to hikes if inflation reaccelerates, tempering cut expectations to just one 25 basis point reduction for all of 2026 per dot plots. The April 28-29 meeting looms as the immediate test, with CME FedWatch showing over 95% odds of a pause.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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