This will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the CDC, the share of the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant has 1.0% or more proportion of SARS-CoV-2 circulating variants in the USA for the week ending on January 1, 2022. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The market will be resolved on the CDC's Nowcast model that estimates more recent proportions of circulating variants. The week bar which ends on January 1, 2022 will be clicked, and the % TOTAL column in the table which refers to the Omicron variant will used for the resolution of this market. If the data moves or changes, or the link changes, these new changes and/or link which delineate % TOTAL will be used. 

The market will resolve as soon as the CDC publishes the Nowcast estimates for the week ending January 1, 2022 - which is scheduled for January 4th. Data will be checked at 8:00 PM ET, January 4, 2022, and every day subsequently if data is not available. 

If data is not available for the week ending on January 1, 2022 by January 10, 2022, the market will resolve based on the most recent weekly data before January 1, 2022. 

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Please note, Nowcast does not predict future spread of the virus nor it provides exact current data, but it does help estimate current prevalence of variants, based on genomic surveillance data from previous weeks. Estimates of variant proportions for previous weeks may change as more data are reported. Nowcast estimates consistently align with the weighted proportions based on reported sequencing data, which are published 2-3 weeks later.

To identify and track SARS-CoV-2 variants, CDC uses genomic surveillance. 

The CDC provides weekly Nowcast estimates which are updated every week on Tuesday.


1% or more

This is a market group on the percent of US COVID-19 cases originating from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022, according to CDC's nowcast https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions.

Will at least 1% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022?

About this market