The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from the May 2026 CPI report, which showed a 4.2% year-over-year rise driven by a 23.5% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the June decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 79.5%, reflecting caution as June CPI data arrives July 14. Modest 19.4% pricing for a 25 basis point hike incorporates dot-plot signals that nine officials anticipate at least one increase this year, while negligible probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given resilient labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Geopolitical and data-dependent factors remain key swing elements before resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Persistent inflation pressures from the May 2026 CPI report, which showed a 4.2% year-over-year rise driven by a 23.5% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the June decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 79.5%, reflecting caution as June CPI data arrives July 14. Modest 19.4% pricing for a 25 basis point hike incorporates dot-plot signals that nine officials anticipate at least one increase this year, while negligible probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given resilient labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Geopolitical and data-dependent factors remain key swing elements before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Jun 18 2026
Fed officials signal reduced urgency for rate cuts amid stronger growth and inflation
25 bps increase drops to 82%11%
On June 18, 2026, Federal Reserve communications indicated that recent data showed stronger economic growth and inflation remaining somewhat elevated, reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. This led markets to sharply lower the probability of no change and increase the odds of a 25 bps rate hike in July.
Jun 18 2026
Fed maintains interest on reserve balances, reinforcing steady policy stance
No change rises to 74%2%
Following the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, supporting the steady monetary policy stance and reinforcing market expectations of no immediate rate changes at the July meeting.
Jun 17 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh removes easing bias and slashes forward guidance in new statement
No change plunges to 79%15%
The FOMC's post-meeting statement was significantly shortened, completely removing the previous easing bias and forward guidance, signaling a return to a simpler format and a higher-for-longer rate path.
Jun 17 2026
Fed holds rates steady in Kevin Warsh's first meeting, signals possible hike later in 2026
No change plunges to 74%19%
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, but raised inflation projections and removed easing bias from its statement. The median forecast for the federal funds rate increased to 3.8% for 2026, indicating a potential 25 bps hike later in the year. This hawkish tone caused the market price for 'No change' to dip slightly and the price for a 25 bps increase to rise toward the end of the analysis window.
Jun 17 2026
Fed holds rates steady but dot plot signals hawkish pivot
25 bps increase surges to 19%15%
In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair, the Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% but raised its year-end rate projection median to 3.8%, signaling a future rate hike.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh
In Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed Chair, the FOMC unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The statement removed forward guidance, signaling a cautious approach but with a hawkish tilt in projections, supporting the 'No change' market outcome.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady and hints at rate hike later this year
25 bps increase surges to 18%15%
At Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC kept the benchmark rate unchanged but released a hawkish dot plot showing that nine of 18 officials projected at least one rate hike in 2026.
Jun 16 2026
Fed Chair Warsh Expected to Withhold Dot from Central Bank's Interest Rate Outlook
No change dips to 92%3%
Reports emerged that newly sworn-in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would withhold his individual interest-rate projection from the Fed's quarterly dot plot. This move signaled his skepticism toward forward guidance and introduced strategic ambiguity ahead of his first FOMC meeting.
Jun 14 2026
US and Iran Announce Interim Peace Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
The announcement of a preliminary peace deal sparked a sharp drop in global oil prices, easing some immediate inflation fears but setting the stage for a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting under new leadership.
Jun 10 2026
US Inflation Reaches 4.2% in May, Highest Since April 2023
25 bps increase surges to 25%19%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline consumer price inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven by a massive surge in energy costs. This hotter-than-expected print forced markets to completely price out rate cuts for 2026 and begin pricing in potential rate hikes.
Jun 10 2026
US inflation climbs to 4.2% in May, highest in three years
25 bps increase dips to 4%2%
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in May, pushing annual inflation to 4.2% due to an energy price surge, increasing pressure on the Fed to consider tightening policy.
May 22 2026
Kevin Warsh sworn in as 17th Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Kevin Warsh officially took the oath of office, assuming leadership of the central bank ahead of the critical June and July policy meetings.
May 20 2026
Fed Minutes Show Officials See Rate Hike Possible if Inflation Stays Elevated
No change rises to 93%3%
Minutes from the May FOMC meeting highlighted increased disagreement among officials, with some seeing a rate hike ahead if inflation remains high, but overall market pricing continued to favor no change in July, reflecting cautious sentiment amid geopolitical risks.
May 13 2026
Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the Federal Reserve
The U.S. Senate voted 54-45 to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell and signaling a potential shift in monetary policy communication.
May 13 2026
Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair
No change rises to 89%1%
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling continuity in monetary policy. Markets interpreted this as maintaining the current cautious stance on interest rates, supporting the 'No change' expectation for upcoming meetings.
May 12 2026
April CPI Shows 3.8% Year‑Over‑Year Inflation Spike
No change rises to 93%1%
The CPI for April was released showing a 3.8 % annual rise – the highest since 2023 – driven by soaring energy prices. The jump reinforced concerns that inflation could stay elevated, prompting traders to back a continued hold rather than a cut, lifting “No change” from 92 % to 93 % on May 13.
May 12 2026
US CPI Inflation Surges to 3.8% in April, Reaching Highest Level Since 2023
25 bps decrease dips to 4%2%
Driven by surging energy costs from the Iran war, annual inflation rose to 3.8%, further dampening any remaining expectations for near-term rate cuts.
May 8 2026
US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 115,000 in April, Beating Muted Forecasts
No change rises to 91%1%
The April jobs report showed steady labor market growth despite Middle East conflict pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady for some time.
Apr 29 2026
Powell Says Inflation Remains Elevated, Fed Will Monitor Energy Risks
No change rises to 85%1%
Powell’s press conference after the April hold emphasized that inflation remains “elevated” and that the Fed will “continue to monitor” energy‑price risks. The dovish tone used to reassure markets kept the probability of any change near zero, contributing to the steady rise of the “No change” bracket.
Apr 29 2026
Fed holds rates steady in April meeting amid inflation and geopolitical concerns
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for the third consecutive time, highlighting uncertainty around inflation and the Middle East conflict. The FOMC was notably divided, with four dissenters, signaling some internal debate but no immediate rate change.
Apr 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid divided vote
No change jumps to 88%8%
In Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with an 8-4 vote, the most dissents since 1992. Inflation remained elevated due to energy prices and geopolitical tensions, leading to cautious policy. This reinforced market confidence in the 'No change' outcome.
Apr 29 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady in Powell's Final Meeting as Chair
No change rises to 88%3%
The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions, marking the third consecutive hold in 2026.
Apr 29 2026
Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Record Dissent, 8‑4 Vote
No change jumps to 88%7%
At the April 29 meeting the Fed again held rates at 3.50‑3.75 % but recorded an 8‑4 split – the highest dissent since 1992. Four members opposed any language hinting at future cuts, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged hold and pushing “No change” up from 81 % to 88 % while further reducing the chance of a 25‑bp move.
Apr 29 2026
Fed Holds Rates Steady at April Meeting Amid Divided Views
No change rises to 82%2%
At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with four dissenting votes signaling disagreement. Chair Powell indicated readiness to remain on the Board, and the Fed emphasized monitoring inflation and economic risks, reinforcing market expectations for no change in July.
The April 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Committee noting market expectations for little change in 2026 and pushing anticipated rate cuts later in the year. This contributed to sustained market confidence in the 'No change' outcome and diminished probabilities for rate decreases.
Apr 29 2026
Jerome Powell announces plan to remain on Fed Board after chair term ends
At the April meeting, Powell stated he would stay on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends in May, providing continuity amid economic uncertainty. This announcement reassured markets about policy stability, supporting the no change outcome.
Apr 24 2026
DOJ Drops Criminal Probe Into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change rises to 85%1%
The DOJ announced it was dropping the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s building‑renovation probe. The closure removed a political obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would remain on a hold‑policy path, nudging “No change” from 84 % to 85 % the next day.
Apr 8 2026
March FOMC Minutes Reveal Deep Divide Over Geopolitical Inflation Risks
No change dips to 80%3%
The release of the March meeting minutes showed policymakers split on whether the conflict in Iran would entrench inflation or damage employment, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause.
Minutes from the March meeting showed some Fed policymakers considered potential rate hikes to counter persistent inflation, especially due to the inflationary impact of the US-Israel war with Iran. This hawkish tone influenced market uncertainty but did not immediately shift rate expectations.
Mar 30 2026
Fed Chair Powell Says Central Bank Can 'Wait and See' on War's Inflation Impact
No change jumps to 80%6%
Speaking at Harvard University, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach, noting that the central bank can wait to see how the war in Iran affects inflation before adjusting rates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from the May 2026 CPI report, which showed a 4.2% year-over-year rise driven by a 23.5% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the June decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 79.5%, reflecting caution as June CPI data arrives July 14. Modest 19.4% pricing for a 25 basis point hike incorporates dot-plot signals that nine officials anticipate at least one increase this year, while negligible probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given resilient labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Geopolitical and data-dependent factors remain key swing elements before resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Persistent inflation pressures from the May 2026 CPI report, which showed a 4.2% year-over-year rise driven by a 23.5% surge in energy costs amid Middle East tensions, have anchored trader expectations for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the June decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, market-implied odds heavily favor no change at 79.5%, reflecting caution as June CPI data arrives July 14. Modest 19.4% pricing for a 25 basis point hike incorporates dot-plot signals that nine officials anticipate at least one increase this year, while negligible probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks given resilient labor markets and elevated Treasury yields. Geopolitical and data-dependent factors remain key swing elements before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Jun 18 2026
Fed officials signal reduced urgency for rate cuts amid stronger growth and inflation
25 bps increase drops to 82%11%
On June 18, 2026, Federal Reserve communications indicated that recent data showed stronger economic growth and inflation remaining somewhat elevated, reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts. This led markets to sharply lower the probability of no change and increase the odds of a 25 bps rate hike in July.
Jun 18 2026
Fed maintains interest on reserve balances, reinforcing steady policy stance
No change rises to 74%2%
Following the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, supporting the steady monetary policy stance and reinforcing market expectations of no immediate rate changes at the July meeting.
Jun 17 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh removes easing bias and slashes forward guidance in new statement
No change plunges to 79%15%
The FOMC's post-meeting statement was significantly shortened, completely removing the previous easing bias and forward guidance, signaling a return to a simpler format and a higher-for-longer rate path.
Jun 17 2026
Fed holds rates steady in Kevin Warsh's first meeting, signals possible hike later in 2026
No change plunges to 74%19%
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, but raised inflation projections and removed easing bias from its statement. The median forecast for the federal funds rate increased to 3.8% for 2026, indicating a potential 25 bps hike later in the year. This hawkish tone caused the market price for 'No change' to dip slightly and the price for a 25 bps increase to rise toward the end of the analysis window.
Jun 17 2026
Fed holds rates steady but dot plot signals hawkish pivot
25 bps increase surges to 19%15%
In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair, the Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% but raised its year-end rate projection median to 3.8%, signaling a future rate hike.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh
In Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed Chair, the FOMC unanimously decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity but persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. The statement removed forward guidance, signaling a cautious approach but with a hawkish tilt in projections, supporting the 'No change' market outcome.
Jun 17 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady and hints at rate hike later this year
25 bps increase surges to 18%15%
At Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC kept the benchmark rate unchanged but released a hawkish dot plot showing that nine of 18 officials projected at least one rate hike in 2026.
Jun 16 2026
Fed Chair Warsh Expected to Withhold Dot from Central Bank's Interest Rate Outlook
No change dips to 92%3%
Reports emerged that newly sworn-in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh would withhold his individual interest-rate projection from the Fed's quarterly dot plot. This move signaled his skepticism toward forward guidance and introduced strategic ambiguity ahead of his first FOMC meeting.
Jun 14 2026
US and Iran Announce Interim Peace Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
The announcement of a preliminary peace deal sparked a sharp drop in global oil prices, easing some immediate inflation fears but setting the stage for a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting under new leadership.
Jun 10 2026
US Inflation Reaches 4.2% in May, Highest Since April 2023
25 bps increase surges to 25%19%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline consumer price inflation rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven by a massive surge in energy costs. This hotter-than-expected print forced markets to completely price out rate cuts for 2026 and begin pricing in potential rate hikes.
Jun 10 2026
US inflation climbs to 4.2% in May, highest in three years
25 bps increase dips to 4%2%
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in May, pushing annual inflation to 4.2% due to an energy price surge, increasing pressure on the Fed to consider tightening policy.
May 22 2026
Kevin Warsh sworn in as 17th Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Kevin Warsh officially took the oath of office, assuming leadership of the central bank ahead of the critical June and July policy meetings.
May 20 2026
Fed Minutes Show Officials See Rate Hike Possible if Inflation Stays Elevated
No change rises to 93%3%
Minutes from the May FOMC meeting highlighted increased disagreement among officials, with some seeing a rate hike ahead if inflation remains high, but overall market pricing continued to favor no change in July, reflecting cautious sentiment amid geopolitical risks.
May 13 2026
Senate confirms Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the Federal Reserve
The U.S. Senate voted 54-45 to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell and signaling a potential shift in monetary policy communication.
May 13 2026
Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair
No change rises to 89%1%
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, signaling continuity in monetary policy. Markets interpreted this as maintaining the current cautious stance on interest rates, supporting the 'No change' expectation for upcoming meetings.
May 12 2026
April CPI Shows 3.8% Year‑Over‑Year Inflation Spike
No change rises to 93%1%
The CPI for April was released showing a 3.8 % annual rise – the highest since 2023 – driven by soaring energy prices. The jump reinforced concerns that inflation could stay elevated, prompting traders to back a continued hold rather than a cut, lifting “No change” from 92 % to 93 % on May 13.
May 12 2026
US CPI Inflation Surges to 3.8% in April, Reaching Highest Level Since 2023
25 bps decrease dips to 4%2%
Driven by surging energy costs from the Iran war, annual inflation rose to 3.8%, further dampening any remaining expectations for near-term rate cuts.
May 8 2026
US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 115,000 in April, Beating Muted Forecasts
No change rises to 91%1%
The April jobs report showed steady labor market growth despite Middle East conflict pressures, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would keep rates steady for some time.
Apr 29 2026
Powell Says Inflation Remains Elevated, Fed Will Monitor Energy Risks
No change rises to 85%1%
Powell’s press conference after the April hold emphasized that inflation remains “elevated” and that the Fed will “continue to monitor” energy‑price risks. The dovish tone used to reassure markets kept the probability of any change near zero, contributing to the steady rise of the “No change” bracket.
Apr 29 2026
Fed holds rates steady in April meeting amid inflation and geopolitical concerns
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% for the third consecutive time, highlighting uncertainty around inflation and the Middle East conflict. The FOMC was notably divided, with four dissenters, signaling some internal debate but no immediate rate change.
Apr 29 2026
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid divided vote
No change jumps to 88%8%
In Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed Chair, the FOMC held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with an 8-4 vote, the most dissents since 1992. Inflation remained elevated due to energy prices and geopolitical tensions, leading to cautious policy. This reinforced market confidence in the 'No change' outcome.
Apr 29 2026
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady in Powell's Final Meeting as Chair
No change rises to 88%3%
The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions, marking the third consecutive hold in 2026.
Apr 29 2026
Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Record Dissent, 8‑4 Vote
No change jumps to 88%7%
At the April 29 meeting the Fed again held rates at 3.50‑3.75 % but recorded an 8‑4 split – the highest dissent since 1992. Four members opposed any language hinting at future cuts, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged hold and pushing “No change” up from 81 % to 88 % while further reducing the chance of a 25‑bp move.
Apr 29 2026
Fed Holds Rates Steady at April Meeting Amid Divided Views
No change rises to 82%2%
At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with four dissenting votes signaling disagreement. Chair Powell indicated readiness to remain on the Board, and the Fed emphasized monitoring inflation and economic risks, reinforcing market expectations for no change in July.
The April 28-29 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Committee noting market expectations for little change in 2026 and pushing anticipated rate cuts later in the year. This contributed to sustained market confidence in the 'No change' outcome and diminished probabilities for rate decreases.
Apr 29 2026
Jerome Powell announces plan to remain on Fed Board after chair term ends
At the April meeting, Powell stated he would stay on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends in May, providing continuity amid economic uncertainty. This announcement reassured markets about policy stability, supporting the no change outcome.
Apr 24 2026
DOJ Drops Criminal Probe Into Fed Chair Jerome Powell
No change rises to 85%1%
The DOJ announced it was dropping the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s building‑renovation probe. The closure removed a political obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed would remain on a hold‑policy path, nudging “No change” from 84 % to 85 % the next day.
Apr 8 2026
March FOMC Minutes Reveal Deep Divide Over Geopolitical Inflation Risks
No change dips to 80%3%
The release of the March meeting minutes showed policymakers split on whether the conflict in Iran would entrench inflation or damage employment, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged pause.
Minutes from the March meeting showed some Fed policymakers considered potential rate hikes to counter persistent inflation, especially due to the inflationary impact of the US-Israel war with Iran. This hawkish tone influenced market uncertainty but did not immediately shift rate expectations.
Mar 30 2026
Fed Chair Powell Says Central Bank Can 'Wait and See' on War's Inflation Impact
No change jumps to 80%6%
Speaking at Harvard University, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach, noting that the central bank can wait to see how the war in Iran affects inflation before adjusting rates.
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Często zadawane pytania
"Decyzja Fed w lipcu?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 5 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Brak zmiany" z 75%, za nim "Podwyżka o 25 pb" z 24%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 75¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 75% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.
Na dzień dzisiejszy "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?" wygenerował $17.8 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Mar 19, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.
Aby handlować na "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?", przeglądaj 5 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.
Obecnym faworytem dla "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?" jest "Brak zmiany" z 75%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 75% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Podwyżka o 25 pb" z 24%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.
Zasady rozstrzygania "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.
Tak. Nie musisz handlować, aby być na bieżąco. Ta strona służy jako tracker na żywo dla "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?". Prawdopodobieństwa wyników aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym z każdą nową transakcją. Możesz dodać tę stronę do zakładek i sprawdzić sekcję komentarzy, aby zobaczyć, co myślą inni traderzy. Możesz też użyć filtrów zakresu czasu na wykresie, aby zobaczyć, jak kursy zmieniały się w czasie. To darmowe, działające w czasie rzeczywistym okno na to, czego rynek oczekuje.
Kursy Polymarket ustalane są przez prawdziwych traderów stawiających prawdziwe pieniądze za swoimi przekonaniami, co zwykle prowadzi do trafnych prognoz. Z $17.8 million wolumenu na "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?", ceny te agregują zbiorową wiedzę i zaangażowanie tysięcy uczestników — często przewyższając sondaże, prognozy ekspertów i tradycyjne badania. Rynki prognoz jak Polymarket mają silną historię trafności, szczególnie gdy wydarzenia zbliżają się do rozstrzygnięcia. Na przykład, Polymarket ma miesięczny wynik trafności 94%. Najnowsze statystyki trafności prognoz Polymarket znajdziesz na stronie trafności na Polymarket.
Aby złożyć swoje pierwsze zlecenie na "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?", zarejestruj darmowe konto Polymarket i doładuj je kryptowalutą, kartą kredytową lub debetową albo przelewem bankowym. Po doładowaniu konta wróć na tę stronę, wybierz wynik, na który chcesz handlować, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli jesteś nowy w rynkach prognoz, kliknij link "Jak to działa" na górze dowolnej strony Polymarket, aby zobaczyć szybki przewodnik krok po kroku.
Na Polymarket cena każdego wyniku reprezentuje implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Cena 75¢ za "Brak zmiany" na rynku "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?" oznacza, że traderzy zbiorowo wierzą, iż istnieje w przybliżeniu 75% szansy na to, że "Brak zmiany" będzie poprawnym wynikiem. Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" po 75¢ i wynik jest poprawny, otrzymasz $1.00 za udział — zysk 25¢ za udział. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, te udziały są warte $0.
Rynek "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?" jest zaplanowany na rozstrzygnięcie około Jul 28, 2026. Handel pozostaje otwarty, a kursy będą się zmieniać w miarę pojawiania się nowych informacji. Dokładny czas rozstrzygnięcia zależy od tego, kiedy oficjalny wynik stanie się dostępny, zgodnie z sekcją "Zasady" na tej stronie.
Rynek "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?" ma aktywną społeczność z 8,283 komentarzami, gdzie traderzy dzielą się swoimi analizami, debatują nad wynikami i omawiają najnowsze wydarzenia. Przewiń w dół do sekcji komentarzy, aby przeczytać, co myślą inni uczestnicy. Możesz też filtrować według "Najwięksi posiadacze", aby zobaczyć, na czym pozycjonują się największe portfele rynku, lub sprawdzić zakładkę "Aktywność" dla transmisji transakcji na żywo.
Polymarket to największy na świecie rynek prognoz, na którym możesz być na bieżąco i czerpać zyski ze swojej wiedzy o wydarzeniach w świecie rzeczywistym. Traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały w wynikach tematów od polityki i wyborów po kryptowaluty, finanse, sport, technologię i kulturę, w tym rynki takie jak "Decyzja Fed w lipcu?". Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym poparte finansowym zaangażowaniem, często dostarczając szybsze i trafniejsze sygnały niż sondaże, komentatorzy czy tradycyjne badania.
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