Trader consensus in the Fed funds rate market heavily favors no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 3.50-3.75% target range holding steady at 92.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects the central bank's recent pause amid inflation remaining above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market, as reinforced by the April dot plot showing limited easing expected for 2026 overall. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices have further supported a data-dependent hold. The June 16-17 meeting, which includes updated projections, represents the key near-term catalyst that could alter the path if incoming CPI or employment figures shift markedly. A sharp downside surprise in growth or inflation would be required to meaningfully reopen odds of a 25 basis point move.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 5.8%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.8%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$7,457,449 Vol.
$7,457,449 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Sin cambio
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
6%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 5.8%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.8%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$7,457,449 Vol.
$7,457,449 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$978,651 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$754,743 Vol.
2%
Sin cambio
$953,319 Vol.
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,783,910 Vol.
6%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$986,826 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus in the Fed funds rate market heavily favors no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 3.50-3.75% target range holding steady at 92.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects the central bank's recent pause amid inflation remaining above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market, as reinforced by the April dot plot showing limited easing expected for 2026 overall. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices have further supported a data-dependent hold. The June 16-17 meeting, which includes updated projections, represents the key near-term catalyst that could alter the path if incoming CPI or employment figures shift markedly. A sharp downside surprise in growth or inflation would be required to meaningfully reopen odds of a 25 basis point move.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,457,449Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus in the Fed funds rate market heavily favors no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 3.50-3.75% target range holding steady at 92.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects the central bank's recent pause amid inflation remaining above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market, as reinforced by the April dot plot showing limited easing expected for 2026 overall. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices have further supported a data-dependent hold. The June 16-17 meeting, which includes updated projections, represents the key near-term catalyst that could alter the path if incoming CPI or employment figures shift markedly. A sharp downside surprise in growth or inflation would be required to meaningfully reopen odds of a 25 basis point move.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$7,457,449Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus in the Fed funds rate market heavily favors no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the 3.50-3.75% target range holding steady at 92.5% implied probability. This positioning reflects the central bank's recent pause amid inflation remaining above the 2% objective and a resilient labor market, as reinforced by the April dot plot showing limited easing expected for 2026 overall. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices have further supported a data-dependent hold. The June 16-17 meeting, which includes updated projections, represents the key near-term catalyst that could alter the path if incoming CPI or employment figures shift markedly. A sharp downside surprise in growth or inflation would be required to meaningfully reopen odds of a 25 basis point move.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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