The election for the 47th Parliament of Australia is scheduled to take place on May 21, 2022. In the 2019 Australian Federal Election a coalition between the Liberal Party of Australia (LPA), the National Party of Australia (NPA), the Liberal National Party of Queensland (some of whom sit with the LPA, some with the NPA), and the Country Liberal Party of the Northern Territory (who held no seats in the House in the 46th Parliament) captured a majority in the House of Representatives by winning 77 seats. The oppositional Australian Labor Party (ALP) trailed with 68 seats.

Following the election, the Liberal-National coalition lost two seats as two members of coalition parties chose to become Independents and sit on the crossbench. This left the governing coalition with only 75 seats by the end of the 46th Parliament. 

If the Australian Labor Party (ALP) wins more House seats than the Liberal-National coalition wins in the election for the 47th Parliament of Australia, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the ALP and the Liberal-National coalition win the exact same number of seats, this market will resolve to "No".

If the election for the 47th Parliament of Australia does not occur before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

If it can be determined before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET the Australian Labor Party (ALP) wins more House seats than the Liberal-National coalition wins in the election for the 47th Parliament of Australia, this market may resolve to "Yes" at the time such a determination is made. If it can be determined before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET the Liberal-National coalition wins the same number as or more House seats than the ALP in the election for the 47th Parliament of Australia, this market may resolve to "No" at the time such a determination is made.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Australia (e.g. https://results.aec.gov.au/). However, a definitive consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.


Will Labor win more seats than the Liberal-Nationals in the 2022 Australian Federal Election?

About this market