Recent reports from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas (77) and Samuel Alito (76)—the court's eldest members—indicate neither plans to retire in 2026, tempering trader consensus toward no Supreme Court vacancy at 57% implied probability. This follows Alito's minor hospitalization for dehydration in early April, which sparked speculation alongside President Trump's comments this week preparing potential nominees while expressing uncertainty. No official announcements or health crises have emerged since, and historical patterns show retirements often signal publicly in spring or summer amid favorable presidential terms. Lifetime appointments and the current 6-3 conservative majority reduce urgency, though late-year developments like unexpected health events could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent reports from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas (77) and Samuel Alito (76)—the court's eldest members—indicate neither plans to retire in 2026, tempering trader consensus toward no Supreme Court vacancy at 57% implied probability. This follows Alito's minor hospitalization for dehydration in early April, which sparked speculation alongside President Trump's comments this week preparing potential nominees while expressing uncertainty. No official announcements or health crises have emerged since, and historical patterns show retirements often signal publicly in spring or summer amid favorable presidential terms. Lifetime appointments and the current 6-3 conservative majority reduce urgency, though late-year developments like unexpected health events could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,288End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent reports from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas (77) and Samuel Alito (76)—the court's eldest members—indicate neither plans to retire in 2026, tempering trader consensus toward no Supreme Court vacancy at 57% implied probability. This follows Alito's minor hospitalization for dehydration in early April, which sparked speculation alongside President Trump's comments this week preparing potential nominees while expressing uncertainty. No official announcements or health crises have emerged since, and historical patterns show retirements often signal publicly in spring or summer amid favorable presidential terms. Lifetime appointments and the current 6-3 conservative majority reduce urgency, though late-year developments like unexpected health events could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,288End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas (77) and Samuel Alito (76)—the court's eldest members—indicate neither plans to retire in 2026, tempering trader consensus toward no Supreme Court vacancy at 57% implied probability. This follows Alito's minor hospitalization for dehydration in early April, which sparked speculation alongside President Trump's comments this week preparing potential nominees while expressing uncertainty. No official announcements or health crises have emerged since, and historical patterns show retirements often signal publicly in spring or summer amid favorable presidential terms. Lifetime appointments and the current 6-3 conservative majority reduce urgency, though late-year developments like unexpected health events could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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