Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?

Mar 18

Mar 19

Mar 20

Mar 21

Mar 18

Mar 19

Mar 20

Mar 21

15°C 67%

16°C 26%

14°C 8%

17°C 1.5%

$45,490 Vol.

Mar 18, 2026

13°C

$6,991 Vol.

<1%

14°C

$4,886 Vol.

15°C

$2,373 Vol.

67%

16°C

$3,350 Vol.

26%

17°C

$4,421 Vol.

18°C

$3,783 Vol.

19°C or higher

$3,093 Vol.

<1%

15°C 67%

16°C 26%

14°C 8%

17°C 1.5%

$45,490 Vol.

Mar 18, 2026

13°C

$6,991 Vol.

<1%

14°C

$4,886 Vol.

15°C

$2,373 Vol.

67%

16°C

$3,350 Vol.

26%

17°C

$4,421 Vol.

18°C

$3,783 Vol.

19°C or higher

$3,093 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a Tokyo high of 15°C (65%) on March 18, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts predicting a daytime peak near 15°C under a stable high-pressure ridge fostering mild early spring conditions. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS align within a 14-16°C range, reflecting historical March 18 averages of 13-14°C boosted by recent urban heat island amplification and southerly winds. Yesterday's 14°C high and low diurnal variability support this clustering, while slim odds for 17°C+ acknowledge rare convective risks. Traders eye afternoon JMA updates for final resolution criteria amid model convergence.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 18, 2026, 3:31 AM UTC

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "15°C" at 67%, followed by "16°C" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?" has generated $45.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?" is "15°C" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "16°C" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $45.5K traded on “Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 67¢ for "15°C" in the "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 67% chance that "15°C" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 67¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 33¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 18, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?" market has an active community of 30 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 18?

Rules

Market Context

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Comments (30)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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