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On Friday, May 16, ten inmates escaped from a jail in New Orleans. Three have since been captured, however seven remain at large. You can read more about that here: https://news.sky.com/story/eight-men-on-the-run-after-audacious-shawshank-escape-from-us-jail-13369323

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the remaining seven escapees are placed physically into the custody of any law enforcement agency by May 18, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be information from relevant government authorities.

Any more New Orleans escapees captured before Monday?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone on the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list (https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten) is captured by United States law enforcement authorities between market issuance and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

A fugitive being captured is defined as the fugitive being arrested by United States law enforcement authorities, voluntarily surrendering to United States law enforcement authorities, being extradited by a non-US entity to United States law enforcement authorities, or otherwise being taken into formal custody by United States law enforcement authorities. 

An individual on the FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list being captured by a non-US entity, without subsequent extradition or equivalent transfer into United States law enforcement custody, will not count. Captures by United States forces overseas will count.

Only individuals who are on the FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list at the time of their capture will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from United States law enforcement authorities and/or United States local, state or federal government entities; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by June 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Maxwell is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Maxwell is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Maxwell to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hayden Davis serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between February 16, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hayden Davis in jail in 2025?

Sam Bankman-Fried is tweeting again (https://x.com/SBF_FTX/status/1970633704323362904).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried  to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

SBF released from custody in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Odell Beckham Jr., serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 10, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use

Odell Beckham Jr. in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced James B. Comey serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between September 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


James Comey in jail in 2025?

 This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced John Bolton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between August 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


John Bolton in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump reopen Alcatraz in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31?

Hong Kong Businessman Jimmy Lai is in custody after being convicted of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/jimmy-lai-verdict-live-hong-kong-court-rule-after-democracy-activists-landmark-2025-12-14/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jimmy Lai released by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye (Kanye West) is arrested between April 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kanye West arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bill Clinton in jail by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sam Altman in jail by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is arrested between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Joe Biden arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Georgia State Representative Stacey Abrams is arrested between February 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Stacey Abrams be arrested in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jun-seok serves any time in custody in any prison between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrii Yermak is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jerome Powell in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is arrested between August 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Gavin Newsom arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 5, and  December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Elon Musk?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 24, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Han Duck-soo spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility such as the Seoul Detention Center while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Han Duck-soo in jail by January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Larry Summers serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between November 18, 2025 and December 31, 2025 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Larry Summers in jail before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hwang Kyo-ahn spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between November 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hwang Kyo-ahn spends time in custody in a jail or prison. Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hwang Kyo-ahn in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is arrested in direct connection with the December 13th Brown University mass shooting by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only arrests of individuals for alleged participation in the planning or execution of the shooting itself will qualify. Arrests made solely for related or subsequent conduct will not qualify.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant is being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Brown University shooter arrested by December 31?

This market will resolve to "No" if any of the listed people receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

The listed individuals are: 
- Diddy
- Ghislaine Maxwell
- Sam Bankman-Fried
- Elizabeth Holmes
- Derek Chauvin

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Nothing Ever Happens: Trump Pardon Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Park Sung-jae spends any time in custody in a jail or prison between October 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Park Sung-jae in jail by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration (including any federal court) publicly releases previously unreleased files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which contain any mention of the listed individual between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only previously unreleased files which contain novel material not previously available to the public will qualify. Documents that are merely re-released, have had redactions removed, repackaged, or newly publicized versions of already available information do not qualify.

Any mention of the listed individual in connection with Jeffrey Epstein will qualify, regardless of if connected to nefarious or illegal activities.

Previously unreleased files is inclusive of any written, audio, photo or video documentation (e.g., qualifying photos which depict the listed individual will count).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if owner of Barstool Sports David Scott Portnoy, serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between February 17, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Dave Portnoy in jail in 2025?

Keith O'Brien, a man accused of being a corporate spy for the software firm Deel, recently stated that he was acting under the direct orders of CEO Alex Bouaziz. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2025/04/02/alleged-deel-spy-court-filing-admits-passing-information-rippling-hr-scandal/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Bouaziz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between April 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione formally agrees to a plea bargain for any of his murder or terrorism charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

As they stand on February 21, qualifying charges are:
Federal - Murder through use of a firearm
State - Murder in the first degree, murder in the second degree as a crime of terrorism, murder in the second degree

If all of these charges are dropped or dismissed, or otherwise changed to charges that involve neither murder, manslaughter, nor terrorism, this market will resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open to consider further retrials, only resolving once this market's resolution date has passed.

If a verdict is reached on all named charges, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market is the ruling court in this case, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Luigi Mangione plea deal in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Liz Cheney serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Liz Cheney?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chungin (Roy) Lee serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between June 9 (inclusive) and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cluely CEO Roy Lee in jail in 2025

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Any more New Orleans escapees captured before Monday?

Market Context

Any more New Orleans escapees captured before Monday?

Rules

Any more New Orleans escapees captured before Monday?

Market Context

Any more New Orleans escapees captured before Monday?

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