Market icon

Another US strike on Venezuela on...?

$1,340,363 Vol.

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil on the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,340,363
End Date
Jan 12, 2026
Created At
Jan 3, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC
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$1,340,363 Vol.

Market icon

Another US strike on Venezuela on...?

OUTCOME
% CHANCE

January 4

$343,751 Vol.

<1%

January 5

$281,577 Vol.

<1%

January 6

$143,775 Vol.

<1%

January 7

$58,634 Vol.

1%

January 8

$39,171 Vol.

1%

January 9

$41,566 Vol.

2%

January 10

$36,751 Vol.

2%

January 11

$32,641 Vol.

1%

January 12

$102,168 Vol.

2%

About

Volume
$1,340,363
End Date
Jan 12, 2026
Created At
Jan 3, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC
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Beware of external links.