The closely contested runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez, following a first-round contest marked by logistical delays and an official turnout of roughly 74 percent, has shaped trader expectations for second-round participation on June 7. Peru’s compulsory voting framework and history of higher runoff engagement support the market’s heaviest weighting toward the 75–80 percent range, while recent administrative adjustments by the National Office for Electoral Processes aim to prevent repeat disruptions. Polarization between the candidates’ urban conservative and rural leftist bases could sustain mobilization, yet voter fatigue from Peru’s frequent leadership changes and lingering distrust in institutions may cap gains. Clear improvements in polling-station management or strong last-minute campaign efforts could push turnout higher, whereas renewed logistical shortfalls or perceptions of low stakes might keep participation nearer the lower end of the projected bands.