Trader sentiment in the NY-21 Republican primary favors Anthony Constantino at 78.5% over Robert Smullen at 18.5% ahead of the June 23 vote to replace Elise Stefanik. Constantino, a businessman with apparent Trump backing, benefits from his outsider appeal in a district spanning rural North Country counties, while Smullen, a state assemblyman, holds endorsements from the New York Republican Party and most county committees. A May 28 debate turned personal with attacks and a refused handshake, underscoring divisions despite policy alignment on issues like elections and immigration. The closely watched primary timeline and candidate credentials continue to shape assessments of the outcome.