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Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by November 30?

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Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by November 30?

$958,713 Vol.

Nov 30, 2025
Polymarket

$958,713 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

China

$93,874 Vol.

Yes

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Canada

$24,291 Vol.

No

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South Korea

$21,118 Vol.

Yes

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Germany

$274,106 Vol.

No

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Brazil

$283,779 Vol.

Yes

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Israel

$4,904 Vol.

No

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India

$40,365 Vol.

No

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Mexico

$15,308 Vol.

No

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Australia

$4,426 Vol.

No

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France

$125,864 Vol.

No

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Argentina

$32,644 Vol.

Yes

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Switzerland

$38,034 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/).

Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.

Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
音量
$958,713
終了日
Nov 30, 2025
マーケット開始日
Oct 30, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/). Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.

提案された結果: Yes

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: Yes

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by November 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "China" at 100%, followed by "South Korea" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by November 30?" has generated $958.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 30, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by November 30?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by November 30?" is "China" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "South Korea" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with by November 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.