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テクノロジー·双子座3

3月末に# 3のAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか？ （スタイルコントロールオン）

Market icon
テクノロジー·双子座3

3月末に# 3のAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか？ （スタイルコントロールオン）

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Google 95.3%

xAI 2.9%

アンソロピック 1.8%

Z.ai <1%

Polymarket

$369,104 Vol.

Google 95.3%

xAI 2.9%

アンソロピック 1.8%

Z.ai <1%

Polymarket

$369,104 Vol.

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Google

$37,583 Vol.

95%

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xAI

$30,181 Vol.

3%

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アンソロピック

$33,914 Vol.

2%

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Z.ai

$130,258 Vol.

<1%

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DeepSeek

$36,536 Vol.

<1%

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ミストラル

$15,811 Vol.

<1%

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アリババ

$23,260 Vol.

<1%

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OpenAI

$30,683 Vol.

<1%

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ムーンショット

$19,343 Vol.

<1%

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美団

$11,628 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini series commands 94.7% implied probability for the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On view) at end-of-March 2026, reflecting trader consensus on its entrenched position in stylistic generation benchmarks. Recent LMSYS vote tallies through late March show Gemini sustaining high Elo ratings behind frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus variants and xAI's Grok iterations, bolstered by Google's iterative fine-tuning and vast user battle data without disruptive challengers emerging in the past 10 days. Leaderboard stability stems from irregular update cycles favoring incumbents near resolution. Realistic threats include a last-minute xAI Grok refresh overtaking via targeted style-control optimizations or vote influxes eroding Gemini's margin, though such shifts are improbable absent official announcements.

Google's Gemini series commands 94.7% implied probability for the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On view) at end-of-March 2026, reflecting trader consensus on its entrenched position in stylistic generation benchmarks. Recent LMSYS vote tallies through late March show Gemini sustaining high Elo ratings behind frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus variants and xAI's Grok iterations, bolstered by Google's iterative fine-tuning and vast user battle data without disruptive challengers emerging in the past 10 days. Leaderboard stability stems from irregular update cycles favoring incumbents near resolution. Realistic threats include a last-minute xAI Grok refresh overtaking via targeted style-control optimizations or vote influxes eroding Gemini's margin, though such shifts are improbable absent official announcements.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini series commands 94.7% implied probability for the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On view) at end-of-March 2026, reflecting trader consensus on its entrenched position in stylistic generation benchmarks. Recent LMSYS vote tallies through late March show Gemini sustaining high Elo ratings behind frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus variants and xAI's Grok iterations, bolstered by Google's iterative fine-tuning and vast user battle data without disruptive challengers emerging in the past 10 days. Leaderboard stability stems from irregular update cycles favoring incumbents near resolution. Realistic threats include a last-minute xAI Grok refresh overtaking via targeted style-control optimizations or vote influxes eroding Gemini's margin, though such shifts are improbable absent official announcements.

Google's Gemini series commands 94.7% implied probability for the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On view) at end-of-March 2026, reflecting trader consensus on its entrenched position in stylistic generation benchmarks. Recent LMSYS vote tallies through late March show Gemini sustaining high Elo ratings behind frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus variants and xAI's Grok iterations, bolstered by Google's iterative fine-tuning and vast user battle data without disruptive challengers emerging in the past 10 days. Leaderboard stability stems from irregular update cycles favoring incumbents near resolution. Realistic threats include a last-minute xAI Grok refresh overtaking via targeted style-control optimizations or vote influxes eroding Gemini's margin, though such shifts are improbable absent official announcements.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「3月末に# 3のAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか？ （スタイルコントロールオン）」はPolymarket上の10個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Google」で95%、次いで「xAI」が3%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、95¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に95%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「3月末に# 3のAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか？ （スタイルコントロールオン）」は$369.1Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 2, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「3月末に# 3のAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか？ （スタイルコントロールオン）」で取引するには、このページに記載されている10個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「3月末に# 3のAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか？ （スタイルコントロールオン）」の現在のフロントランナーは「Google」で95%であり、市場がこの結果に95%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「xAI」で3%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「3月末に# 3のAIモデルを持っているのはどの会社ですか？ （スタイルコントロールオン）」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。